"BMT Investors" Bulletin Board

[kscarbel2]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-08-13/bessent-says-fed-rates-should-be-150-175-bps-lower-video

[kscarbel2]

From 1:39:20

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[67RModel]

Impact of tariffs as it relates to class 8 truck production for US market.....

US truck manufacturing is moving off-shore due to steep tariffs

From the article specific to Mack:

"Sweden’s Volvo and its Mack Trucks unit produce for the US market at plants in Dublin, Virginia, and Macungie, Pennsylvania. But the company says the cost math has turned against U.S. lines. In April, Volvo increased its planned Mexico plant investment by $300 million to $1 billion to support its U.S. operations."

[mowerman]

The entire caper is becoming very confusing… we were all led to believe this was to bring back production here… don’t know why thier punishing us companies manufacturing here????? Bob

[kscarbel2]

WSJ  /  9-2-2025

Based on what’s happening in the black market for oil, the White House’s new import levy on India is backfiring.

President Trump last week doubled India’s tariff rate to 50% to punish it for buying sanctioned Russian oil. Indian refineries have become major buyers of Moscow’s crude since the war in Ukraine began.

The higher tariffs caused some ripples in the global black market, where around 6 million barrels of oil trade a day. Spooked Indian buyers dumped sanctioned Russian crude and ordered from the Middle East instead.

Russian cargoes were bought by opportunistic buyers in China: Orders for Russia’s Urals crude that will be delivered in October increased almost 10-fold compared with levels for September.

But Moscow cut the price of its oil to win back its Indian customers. A now $7 difference between a barrel of Urals and an equivalent grade from Oman is too good for India’s refineries to refuse. New Delhi also gave the green light for the purchases to continue, so flows are returning to normal.

The unintended effect of the U.S. crackdown has therefore been to make Russia’s already discounted oil even cheaper for India. As of Friday, a barrel of Urals costs India $1 less than it did before the White House first threatened the higher tariff.

The amount of crude under Western sanctions is at a record high: 15% of the world’s total oil supply, Kpler data shows. The black market to trade this illicit crude is increasingly sophisticated. In 2022, 427 so-called shadow vessels were suspected of transporting sanctioned energy for Iran and Venezuela. The fleet has quadrupled in size since Russia’s energy exports were sanctioned three years ago.

With so much discounted oil on offer, Beijing and New Delhi have been making hay. A third of China’s crude imports now come from sanctioned producers, up from 23% in 2021. India’s share of sanctioned barrels is higher at 37% of its oil imports, up from just 1% four years ago.

A barrel of Urals crude costs India $1 less than it did before the White House first threatened the higher tariff.

India’s energy policy may not have been the White House’s only target. The 50% tariff rate also looks like a tactic to force concessions in trade talks with New Delhi. U.S. demands that India open up its agricultural market have been a sticking point in negotiations. The new levy will be painful for India, potentially shaving 0.8 percentage point off the country’s economic growth.

So far, the pressure hasn’t worked. New Delhi is reacting by moving closer to Russia and China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first trip to China in over seven years this week to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. India’s Foreign Minister traveled to Moscow in recent days and the countries agreed to increase bilateral trade by 50% over the next five years.

The episode makes the White House’s energy policies look conflicted. Until recently, it suited the U.S. and Europe for India to buy Russian crude because it keeps energy prices in check for Western consumers by keeping supply high and reducing demand for unsanctioned oil. And the U.S. hasn’t moved as aggressively against China, which also imports millions of barrels a day of sanctioned oil from both Russia and Iran.

The White House probably wants to remove the advantage that cheap oil hands to India and strategic rival China. But enforcing sanctions properly will mean higher prices at the pump for Americans. Its latest policy has only made black-market oil more enticing.

[mowerman]

Thanks for that. It still doesn’t explain why out here and where paying 408 to 469 a gallon except for a pure greed.

[kscarbel2]

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ record revision to US payrolls data is further proof that the US economy is battling a slowdown.

“The economy is weakening. Whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”

[kscarbel2]

Oil tycoons bet big on Trump. It’s paying off.

WSJ  /  Sept 8, 2025

Oil billionaire Harold Hamm high-fived Donald Trump on election night as results trickled in at Mar-a-Lago.

Continental Resources founder Hamm had good reason to celebrate. He and other oilmen had donated tens of millions of dollars to help re-elect Trump, betting that his pro-fossil-fuel agenda would stave off a long-term shift away from fossil fuels.

That wager is paying off. The Trump administration is opening swaths of wilderness land and federal waters to drilling, approving new terminals to export natural gas and proposing to ax environmental regulations, including an Obama-era rule used to curb emissions from power plants, tailpipes and oil-and-gas production. His One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to hobble renewable-energy projects and stunt the adoption of electric vehicles.

Oil executives now enjoy extraordinary access to the White House. Trump has taken to phoning oil bosses including Chevron CEO Mike Wirth.

“No doubt, this administration understands how important energy is," says EQT CEO Toby Rice. Rice and Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods sat at Trump’s table during a July energy summit in Pittsburgh.

So far, however, the industry’s policy wins haven’t flowed through to the companies’ bottom lines. Trump’s shifting positions on trade, coupled with an increase in crude supplies globally, have depressed oil prices, cost energy firms billions of dollars in stock-market value and contributed to layoffs across the industry. And new tariffs on steel and aluminum are making drilling more expensive.

U.S. oil prices are hovering near $62, below the break-even point for many of the industry’s smaller players, down from $76 the week Trump took office. Yet some oil bosses see the turbulence as a price worth paying to see the president implement their agenda.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt says the oil-and-gas industry is the backbone of the American economy and the source of “millions of good-paying jobs," and that the president is delivering on his promise to “make America energy dominant again."

Trump’s unabashed support for the industry has left environmentalists aghast. They contend the administration’s moves will translate into higher energy prices for consumers, fuel climate change and make the U.S. less competitive with other nations that are embracing renewable energy.

Big asks

Hamm, Energy Transfer Chairman Kelcy Warren and Liberty Energy’s then-CEO Chris Wright (now Trump’s energy secretary) were some of the top oil executives who hosted fundraisers for Trump during the campaign. Among other things, they wanted the next president to open up new markets by supporting new pipelines and terminals, to end subsidies for electric vehicles and to kill tailpipe emissions regulations.

Before the election, Warren told investors he was banking on finally completing Lake Charles LNG, a Gulf Coast terminal his company had sought to build for more than a decade. Warren donated more than $13 million to Trump’s campaign.

After Trump became president, he lifted a pause Biden had imposed on new LNG exports, and the Energy Department last month granted the project a permit extension that the previous administration had denied. Warren and his company each gave $12.5 million after the election to the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super political-action committee.

Trump’s tax-and-spending legislation will end subsidies of up to $7,500 for purchasing or leasing an EV. It also brings a windfall to oil-and-gas and other companies in the form of expanded tax breaks.

ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy recently told investors that because of new tax provisions in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, they collectively expect to save over $1.2 billion in tax payments in 2025, and likely billions more in the coming years. BP says the tax savings will likely offset any pressure from tariffs.

In July, the EPA said it aims to rescind a 2009 climate rule that states that greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare by raising global temperatures. It has used the finding to regulate releases from power plants, motor vehicles, aircraft, landfills and oil-and-gas activities.

The Domestic Energy Producers Alliance, an industry lobbying group co-founded by Hamm, praised the EPA’s proposed revision of the rule, which the lobbying group called the foundation for nearly all environmental challenges facing U.S. oil and gas.

Open doors

Hamm and other top oil executives gathered on Inauguration Day on the roof of the Hay–Adams Hotel overlooking the White House. As they watched the president deliver his speech, one of them called out: “He just said drill baby drill!" Others clapped and cheered.

The industry had rocky relations with Biden, who told the oil industry to reduce emissions and embrace low-carbon technologies. Biden accused oil companies of war profiteering after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices and corporate profits soaring.

The American Petroleum Institute couldn’t get a meeting with Biden. When Biden Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm appeared at an API meeting via video, “She told us we had to change or we’d be like Kodak. It has become a legendary story in the industry. The Kodak story."

Trump first met with API and oil-and-gas executives in March at the White House. He said it was his favorite industry, and that there would be no tariffs on energy. Two weeks later, when Trump announced global tariffs on Liberation Day, oil and gas products were exempt.

Since then, API has met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Wright, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and other administration officials. At least a dozen oil executives including Hamm, Exxon’s Woods and former Hess CEO John Hess have spoken to Trump since the election. Many CEOs have Wright’s phone numberss.

“It has been a complete turnaround from our interactions with the Biden administration," said Mike Sommers, who leads API. “We outlined a clear policy road map well before the last election, and they’ve advanced those issues at every turn."

Early last year, Hamm brought Wright, then still head of oil-field-services company Liberty Energy, to an energy roundtable at Mar-a-Lago. Then candidate Trump went around the room asking questions. Hamm later recalled at an energy conference that Trump was so impressed by Wright’s answers that he asked Wright to head the Department of Energy.

In April, after Wright became energy secretary, he attended a gathering in Oklahoma City arranged by Hamm to discuss the need for more energy to support the rise of AI. So too did Burgum, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. Attendees joked at how many officials from the administration showed up separately.

Burgum, Wright and Zeldin have been zipping around the country to visit fossil-fuel-producing regions, talking up energy projects in Alaska, Louisiana and Pennsylvania.

At least a dozen former oil executives and lobbyists have joined the administration and are helping to oversee the nation’s public lands and mineral resources. The National Energy Dominance Council, a body Trump set up to produce more American energy, is partly staffed and advised by former employees of oil-and-gas companies.

The DoE says it is working to “restore American energy dominance, lower costs and expand consumer freedom," and that the “only special interest" the president cares about is the American people.

New territory

ConocoPhillips has lobbied for years to be allowed to drill on new parcels of federal land in Alaska, where it is the largest oil producer. Biden approved Willow, the company’s massive drilling project on the state’s North Slope, but restricted access to millions of acres of Arctic wilderness.

On Inauguration Day, Trump signed an executive order to boost production in Alaska. At the White House meeting in March with oil-and-gas executives, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance discussed with the president drilling opportunities in the state.

In June, the Interior Department proposed rescinding Biden restrictions in an area in Alaska known as the National Petroleum Reserve. ConocoPhillips has since applied for federal permits to explore in the reserve (where Willow is located).

While boosting prospects for the oil industry, the Trump administration also has taken steps to pause or halt wind and solar projects. The tax-and-spending bill ended tax credits, and the Interior Department issued an order last month that will likely make it more difficult to build solar and wind projects on federal land.

Trade-offs

During a fundraiser last fall in Midland, Texas, Trump repeated his campaign vow to “drill, baby, drill." Someone in the crowd shot back that oil-and-gas producers decide whether or not to drill, not the government.

For years, U.S. shale-oil companies burned cash to fuel growth but returned little or no profits. Investors compelled them to rein in spending, and the publicly traded ones are wary of ramping up development, even when oil and gas prices jump. Their inventories of premium wells have been shrinking.

Trump has kept pushing for lower crude prices to help tame inflation and achieve his geopolitical goals. He has repeatedly told oil executives he wants oil under $40 a barrel, and executives have taken turns lobbying him against lower prices. “He thinks lower oil prices solve every problem—it’s a magic elixir," one oil executive said. “A lot of executives have told him it will actually lead to bankruptcies in the industry and lower production over time."

The recent tumble in crude prices has prompted producers to shed drilling rigs and crews that frack wells, and added pressure on companies to do more with less. ConocoPhillips last week said it would cut 25% of its workforce. Some of those layoffs were expected after it acquired rival Marathon Oil last year. Chevron announced earlier this year that it would shrink its workforce by up to 20%.

The number of oil-and-gas extraction jobs declined by more than 3% between January and August to its lowest level in two years.

In their March meeting with Trump, oil-and-gas executives lobbied for a carve-out for oil-field products from his 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, but that didn’t happen.

Permian Basin driller Diamondback Energy reported last month that it expected some well construction costs to increase nearly 25% this year because of the tariffs, which Trump doubled in June. It said the duties would raise the break-even cost of nearly every well drilled in the U.S. this year.

Still, many in the industry say Trump is bestowing so many gifts that a period of lower profits is probably worth the cost.

“We all voted for this," said Element Petroleum CEO Taylor Sell.

[mowerman]

thanks for that,,very interesting,,,,not sure about ignoring wind and solar farms,,,with so many people turning to electric cars and power equipment,,,,we could always use all the juice,we can come up with bob

[mowerman]

not to mention atleast here in reno thier buliding houses on top of houses,,all we got here now is too many cars and too many traffic lights