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Fed eyes lasting impediments to growth after rethink on outlook The Financial Times / June 16, 2016 Earlier this month, Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, struck a broadly positive tone about the US economy. The big picture, she declared in a speech in Philadelphia, was “largely favourable” for an economy that had registered impressive gains since the Great Recession. Forecasts by the Fed on Wednesday tell a more sombre story. While policymakers left their predictions for economic growth and inflation largely unchanged, they now believe that the central bank will have to keep rates even lower to sustain that outlook. What was already set to be the Fed’s shallowest rate-lifting cycle in modern times now looks even more glacial. The reason is that Fed officials have been rethinking the longer-term outlook for the US economy — and drawing some gloomy conclusions. The Fed chair has for much of her tenure been predicting that the post-crisis “headwinds” that are holding the economy back are likely to prove fleeting. On Wednesday, however, she suggested that the economic depressants weighing on US growth and inflation could prove more stubborn than the central bank previously believed. As a result, the so-called “neutral” rate of interest that is needed to keep the economy growing roughly at its trend rate and operating near full employment could stay stunted for a long time. The words helped explain why Fed officials scythed back their interest rate forecasts beyond the current year, with their median prediction for the federal funds rate’s target range falling sharply in 2018 from 3 per cent to 2.375 per cent. The Fed’s median estimate for the longer-run rate now stands at 3 per cent, a full point below where its estimate stood three years ago. Roberto Perli, an economist at Cornerstone Macro, argues Fed estimates for the longer-run target rate may need to be cut further, to as low as 2 per cent. What is leading to the reassessment? A series of long-lasting and persistent factors may be holding down the longer-run neutral rate. The ageing of America’s population is leading to slow labour force growth as well as sluggish rates of household formation, for instance. Crucially, productivity growth is worryingly listless. Analysis from the Conference Board suggests that the US will this year see negative productivity growth for the first time since the early 1980s, a toxic situation that could hamper income growth. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Thursday shed light on some of the deep-seated problems driving this story. The Paris-based organisation struck a broadly optimistic tone about the US recovery, pointing out in a survey that output has surpassed its pre-crisis peak by 10 per cent, far outperforming the euro area and Japan, while unemployment is down sharply and the government’s fiscal position is on a better footing. However, productivity growth has been torpid even in so-called frontier firms in industries such as information technology and pharmaceuticals. Part of the problem is a failure of companies to invest, preferring instead to funnel out higher dividends and engage in share buybacks. Lower levels of business start-ups, plus growing market power for industry leaders that is restraining competition, may also be operating as barriers to productivity growth. “Productivity growth has been sluggish since the Great Recession and had been slowing before it. This slowdown has touched nearly every industry,” the report concluded. Lasting impediments to US growth are likely to weigh on the Fed’s policy outlook, perhaps even more than the central bank’s policymakers currently believe. The grimmer outlook suggests that the so-called secular stagnation thesis of lethargic growth and suppressed interest rates espoused by economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, may well be gaining currency. “All of us are involved in a process of constantly re-evaluating, where is that neutral rate going,” acknowledged Ms Yellen. “And I think what you see is a downward shift in that assessment over time. The sense that maybe more of what’s causing this neutral rate to be low are factors that are not going to be rapidly disappearing but will be part of the new normal.” Lewis Alexander, chief US economist at Nomura, said: “We believe that persistent structural factors — in effect ‘secular stagnation’ — are more likely to be the core reasons for the depressed level of the neutral rate. Therefore, we doubt the FOMC will be able to raise rates as far as it currently expects.” Ms Yellen remained eager on Wednesday to drive home the message that the economy and inflation will grow enough to merit further rate increases. A second rise in short-term interest rates could come as soon as next month, she insisted, although her language suggested that this is something of a long shot. But more Fed policymakers seem to coming around to the view that has long prevailed in financial markets: that increases in the fed funds rate will be languid at best. .

Until next year.

You're exactly right.

That's another big issue I have with Paccar. Why ARE they afraid to use real photos? Photoshop photographs do nothing for anyone. Like the toy truck design theme, PS pictures look ridiculous.

Here's a selection.....473s seem to be rare. https://www.google.com/search?q=willys+pickup&newwindow=1&biw=1280&bih=882&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiKvfvQ0azNAhVMHGMKHSzNCqMQsAQIGw Since you're independently wealthy, I imagine you'll simply pay these folks to restore it for you so as not to take time away from your golfing..................http://willysamerica.com/restorations/trucks/index.html http://midwestjeepwillys.com/truck-wagon-parts.html

On the west coast, the RL/RS probably was more popular in vocational (mixers). But back east, it was viewed as an upscale and/or lightweight alternative to the R-model in the tractor segment. You're right about the door design controversy.

Boy, I haven't thought about these in a while. I assume this is a 475 (1953-1965) with an F-head?(4-cyl), but the 3 horizontal chrome grille bars are missing. The 4T (1947-1950) had a flat grille the the MB and CJs. 473s (1950-1952) are rare (with 5 horizonal grille bars), only built a couple years.

Paul, I perhaps should have posted it here with the other MCR info...................http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/30466-when-mack-roamed-europe-the-middle-east-africa-and-western-asia/?page=3#comment-179932

Worth noting, a nice New Zealand MCR tractor with at 44 rears. Note the RHD instrument panel is altogether different, not the exact opposite if the LHD version. New Zealand got special builds, including their unique RB, a glossed over example of the 1978 Brockway 760 "Super-Liner" prototype (ahead of the MCR, Mack Australia got the MIR model, which used the former Brockway N527 "Huskiteer" cab ). .

Scania also followed the Mack "Balanced-Design" approach. The Scania LK141 chassis .

June 16, 2016 A congressman had to lead a 14 hour filibuster to 2:11am in the morning to get his colleagues to agree to hold a vote on an amendment to expand background checks and ban gun sales to suspected terrorists. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/16/enough-senate-filibuster-ends-as-democrat-claims-gun-control-victory

A Mack was a custom-built truck. Fuel tank size was specified by the customer. Typical of DM690S...................... Available left side options were 50, 65 or 80 gal rectangular. A right-side rectangular 40 gal was an option as well. Round tanks were a special order option. Your fuel tank should have an identification plate stating: 1. The fuel tank's Mack "2MB" part number 2. The tank's date of manufacture 3. The tank's overall capacity 4. The tank's usable capacity

Paul, I completely agree with you. The North American market Kenworth T680 and Peterbilt Model 579, which share a cab, look like a couple of plastic toys. I despise their droopy nose styling theme. Now as we all know, it's the performance that counts. However, when one can blend form with function, then you've got something. An attractive looking truck can be a valuable sales tool (free advertising), and also help immensely in driver retention (a truck that driver's want to get behind the wheel of). I don't like the new cheaper-for-Paccar shared cab. I've been all over it at the plant......it's cheap. They're making more profit, but the customer's purchase price didn't fall. Note how truckmakers are promoting hideous* looking trucks in the US, and yet the same truckmakers are selling attractive looking trucks in Australia. Yes, the American market requires cutting edge aerodynamics to reduce emissions and fuel costs, but those purpose-designed trucks can still look attractive. * http://www.westernstartrucks.com/Trucks/5700/default.aspx versus https://westernstar.com.au/western-star-5800-ss/ https://westernstar.com.au/western-star-4800-fxb/ https://westernstar.com.au/western-star-4900-fxc/

How long to Scania LKs last? Nobody knows. None have ever worn out. Though the last one was produced in 1981, these 14.2-liter Scania DS14 V8-powered example demonstrates their durability. Once you become accustomed to all that V8 power, anything else is........less. Ask BC Mack about his experience with the DS14 V8 in a Scania 141 (if his pills are nearby). .

There pictures will surprise many. This is one of a fleet of axle-forward Scania 2-Series conventionals, operated by British Petroleum in New Zealand. Looks like an American "west coast" truck with the steer tires just behind the bumper, Scania Model T112MC (New Zealand spec) Lightweight chassis / Set-forward steer axle Engine Model 11-litre 333 horsepower DSC11-01 Transmission Scania 10-speed GR871 Production 1985-1986 Wheelbase 4,790mm (188.6 inches) Tires 11R22.5 GCW 48,000kg (105,822lb) .

Of course Scania wasn’t the only truckmaker to sell axle-forward versions of European COEs in Australia. In 1997, Western Star introduced an axle-forward version of ERF’s superb EC Series, dubbed the Commander 7564. Many were sold in Australia and New Zealand. .

Although most Scania COEs have a European-style "axle-back" steer configuration (like the popular Mack FM), the Swedish truckmaker had in the past produced North American-style axle-forward steer COEs. Below is a photo a 1-Series in Australia. Designated model "LK", 3,833 were sold in Brazil from 1975 to 1981, and 686 were delivered to Australian customers during the 1976-1981 period. The steer axle was relocated forward 415mm (16.34 inches). I humbly feel the set-forward position makes for a nice looking truck. .

Steve Brooks, Owner/Driver / June 16, 2016 In his first interview in three years, Roger Penske exclusively talks to Steve Brooks about his history, the Penske brands, Detroit Diesel, the Australian market, and everything in-between Automotive industry mogul and car racing icon Roger Penske insists he has a long-term strategy to forge a significant stake in the Australian and New Zealand truck and diesel engine markets. In his first and only interview since taking control in 2013 of Transpacific’s commercial vehicle group comprising Western Star, MAN and Dennis Eagle brands for a reported $219 million, and soon after acquiring the MTU Detroit Diesel Australia engine business, Penske says his main goal for now is to achieve a 10 percent stake of the Australian heavy-duty truck industry. Renaming the businesses Penske Commercial Vehicles and Penske Power Systems respectively, he concedes the past two years have been difficult, particularly for the flagship Western Star brand with fiercely competitive pricing cited as the major reason for a considerable slide in sales. It is, however, an emphatic Penske who says, "This is a long-term investment. Not everybody wants to get into this business and for me it’s about building a team of responsible, qualified people. What we need to do is train and build the best team and if we do that, we’ll be a winner. "I feel really good about it. I like the country, I like the people and to me it’s an extension of what we already do. "We have a truck fleet in the US of around 230,000 vehicles, so a few more out here just adds on to that." Viewed by some industry executives as the man with the Midas touch, and with personal wealth estimated at several billion dollars, the 79-year-old Penske remains a dynamic businessman and automotive entrepreneur with a sharp eye for opportunity and potential. Perhaps Penske’s greatest success came when he took control of Detroit Diesel from General Motors in the US in the late 1980s. Recognising the incredible potential of the then newly developed Series 60 engine, he took Detroit Diesel to the top of the North American heavy-duty diesel engine business before selling the entire operation to Daimler. As the chairman of Penske Automotive Group, he controls an operation which around the time of the purchase of Transpacific’s commercial vehicle operation had almost 350 retail automotive franchises representing 39 different brands, with the group selling more than 402,000 vehicles (cars and trucks) and generating revenues of US$13.2 billion. His commercial vehicle interests include ownership of Penske Truck Leasing which operates more than 230,000 vehicles servicing customers in North America, South America, Europe and Asia, and is one of the largest purchasers of commercial trucks in North America. Many of those vehicles are Daimler products and his ties with the German giant remain strong. In the Australian and New Zealand markets, he makes no secret of an intention to expand his current Penske Truck Rental operation and, similarly, grow the truck leasing business. "We are totally committed to this market," he asserts. Despite considerable speculation, Penske denies that his ultimate goal is to take control of Freightliner in Australia. "We are the number-one customer in the US for Freightliner and we wanted to grow the commercial vehicle side of our business, so a couple of years ago Daimler contacted me and said this business might be available," he says. "I had some idea of Transpacific and the (commercial vehicle) business looked like something that fitted our plans over the longer term. "And quiet honestly, I like this marketplace, I knew a lot of the customers, so it was a perfect fit. "Then, as part of our plan here, we had the opportunity to get Detroit Diesel," he continues. "Combined with the MTU engine business, it gave us a thousand people and probably a 500 to 600 million dollar business operating in marine, defence, on-highway and off-highway, power generation, and it really fits our plan, particularly in service and parts. "When I look at our business, 30 per cent of our revenue generates 70 or 80 per cent of our gross margin and that comes from service and parts. "So when you put it all together, I wouldn’t trade it with anybody. Not at all," a determined Roger Penske concludes. .

Kamaz Trucks Press Release / June 15, 2016 Russian transporter Tempo-Logistics yesterday took delivery of 24 new KamAZ model 5490 4x2 tractors. The event was attended by KamAZ Sales & Service Deputy Director Sergey Afanasiev, KamAZ Finance Company Director Andrey Ignatyev, Tempo Technical Director Kamil Shakirov and Tempo-Logistcs Senior Director Ilgiz Kadirov. This is not the logistics company’s first purchase. Last year, it purchases 100 of Kamaz’s popular flagship model 5490 tractor. The effectiveness of last year’s trucks led to the new order. The trucks will be operating out of the city of Naberezhnye Chelny, transporting goods for TEM-PO Naberezhnye Chelny Tube Works (http://eng.ntz-tempo.ru/) and Kama Tempo Steel Structures plant (http://kzmktempo.ru/en/), the largest in the Volga Federal District. KamAZ website (model 5490) - http://kamaz.ru/en/production/serial/tractor-units/kamaz-5490/ .

Transport Brazil / June 15, 2016 Volvo has launched a high capacity 32-ton (70,548lb) VM range based on the global market FMX vocational platform. The VM 6x4 “Off-Road” Series, unique to Brazil, is a medium-heavy (baby 8) truck offered as a rigid, tractor or tipper. The new 32-ton 6x4 can carry 5.3 tons (11,685lb) more than the standard version. "We are continually investing to always have the best solution for commercial transport," says Bernardo Fedalto, director Volvo Trucks Brazil. "The VM with PBT of 32 tons is to meet the market demand for vehicles with excellent value for money in the off-road segment," says Francisco Mendonça, manager Volvo Trucks. "Developed and produced at our plant in Curitiba, the VM wins for its low fuel consumption and high availability in various applications. Now we are further expanding our offer, "said Nilton Roeder, director of strategy, business development and sales support trucks of Volvo Latin America Group. "It is a sector that needs trucks with intermediate load capacity and suitable for applications where the intensity and severity not require higher power vehicles," adds Alvaro Menoncin, sales engineering manager at Volvo Latin America. Equipped with a 330 horsepower 7.2-liter [MWM-International] engine and 6x4 axle configuration, it is also the lightest truck in its class, from 275 kg to 1050 kg. lighter than its competitors. FMX Components "The 32-ton VM “Off-Road” shares some of its main components with our severe service global market FMX line, facing the heavy transport in extreme conditions," says Ricardo Tomasi, sales engineer at Volvo Latin America. “It has, for example, the robust planetary hub reduction, as well as the straight beam front axle, and the same 12-speed I-Shift transmission as the FMX," says Tomasi. In addition, the heavu-duty VM maintains the same attributes by which the VM line is recognized in Brazil: high availability, low fuel consumption, low maintenance and a cabin for easy access, and provides great comfort to the driver. "We have no doubt that the new VM off road will contribute significantly to increase the profitability of the carrier, which is now experiencing an economic environment highly competitive," says Roeder. The VM330 “Off-Road” leads in robust construction and load capacity. Volvo introduced several innovations to increase load capacity by 20%. Changes to the VM’s suspension and upgraded axles result in GVWs from 26.7 tons to 32 tons. "We dare say it is the best vehicle in its class," says Bernardo Fedalto, director of Volvo trucks in Brazil. The previous 6.7 ton (14,771lb) front axle has been replaced with an 8 ton (17,637lb) unit. The previous 20 ton rear axles have been upgraded to 24 ton units with planetary hub reduction which feature driver-controlled inter-axle and inter-wheel locks. The front suspension, rated at 8 tons, features parabolic springs, high-capacity, double-acting shock absorbers and stabilizer bar. Already the rear suspension consists beam semielípticas springs and designed to withstand 24 tons. It is more robust and provides easy maintenance as, if necessary, it is possible to change just one of the blades. "The less time the truck stand, the greater the productivity of the transport operation," said Tomasi. Brake chambers are mounted up high, protecting them from damage. Other features include a reinforced radiator guard screen, oil sump guard and LED rear lights. Volvo Brazil website (VM) - http://www.volvotrucks.com/trucks/brazil-market/pt-br/trucks/Volvo_VM/Volvo_VM/Pages/Introduction.aspx .

Absolutely ridiculous.

Heavy Goods Vehicles UK / June 14, 2016 The UK’s Freight Transport Association (FTA) has called for urgent postponement of a new employment law in France which means all foreign truck drivers passing through the country have to carry documents proving they earn the French minimum wage. From 1 July, foreign vehicles operating on French soil will have to implement new reporting requirements to demonstrate compliance – and with just 15 days before the deadline, the situation for operators remains woefully unclear. The French government has still not given full guidance to foreign operators, promised in a ‘frequently asked questions’ document. FTA is calling for a postponement of the application of the new provisions until more clarity is made. Moreover, FTA urges the European Commission to support its request for a postponement and also to speed up publication of the Commission’s own investigation into the legal basis of these provisions on the Single Market. Chris Yarsley, FTA’s EU Affairs Manager, said: “It is unacceptable that the French government has not given industry full information and guidance on these new measures, only days before they come into force. The sector must be given more time to adapt business practices before any enforcement takes place.” The new law requires the transport company operating in France to submit a ‘posting’ certificate for each worker, which must be renewed every six months. The employer of this mobile worker must also appoint a company representative in France, responsible for liaising with staff of the enforcement body for the duration of the transport operation plus 18 months. This requirement will be particularly problematic for companies that do not have an office or branch in France. Drivers must keep in their vehicle a copy of their employment contract and the certificate of posting – any breach of the rules will lead to a fine. Mr Yarsley added: “The requirement to keep paper documents on board the vehicle is a step backwards and will lead to documents getting lost as drivers are moved around. And who are these ‘representatives’ that are supposed to hold private information on the drivers working on a UK contract? We must be given more information by the authorities.” FTA is working with other trade associations and industry sectors to increase pressure on the French authorities to hold back any enforcement of these new rules until the situation is much clearer.

??? http://www.engineking.com/catalog/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=21_27&products_id=421 ??? http://www.endurancepower.com/media/News_07_07.pdf Paul, there are still E9s running in Oz. I'm curious, if you would give Mack Oz a call (1300696225 ) and ask them if they still supply reman E9 heads, or what is a bloke supposed to do?