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Trump’s economic policy explained: the era of fiscal restraint is over The Financial Times / November 10, 2016 As Donald Trump prepares for the White House, a theme is beginning to emerge: the era of fiscal restraint in the US could be coming to an end. Mr Trump was scathing during the campaign about the increases in US national debt under Barack Obama, and the businessman at one point claimed implausibly that he would pay the entire $19 trillion stock off in eight years. Yet as bond markets have been recognizing over the past 48 hours, by prioritizing tax cuts and an infrastructure package for the first 100 days of the Trump administration, his team appears to be envisaging a stimulus program that comes at a time when the US is already close to full employment. That could mean not only higher growth, but quicker inflation. If this is indeed what the Republican-led Congress signs up to next year, it would represent a major shift at a time when organizations including the International Monetary Fund have argued in favor of greater budgetary support around the world. The upshot for the Federal Reserve could be an acceleration of the return to more normal interest rates. “Fiscal policy is coming back big-time relative to what we have seen in the past five or six years,” said Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank. “From a Fed perspective if fiscal policy is coming back the corollary to that is monetary policy will have to do less easing.” What does the plan entail? Mr Trump’s plans for cutting personal and business taxes would, according to analysis from the Tax Policy Center, lead to a rise in the federal debt by $7.2 trillion over the first decade. In addition, Mr Trump’s transition team has pledged to invest $550 billion in infrastructure and has spoken of ramping up defense spending, including adding 42 ships to the navy and renewing nuclear and missile defense. The agenda also includes supply-side measures such as a regulation-slashing blitz. His sketchy fiscal plans will now have to be fleshed out in dialogue with Congress. A template on the tax side is the Better Way plan of Paul Ryan, House speaker, which is a more conservative package but overlaps with Mr Trump’s by reducing corporate income tax and consolidating the number of income tax brackets as well as lowering some rates. How about the infrastructure side? The fact that Mr Trump mentioned infrastructure in his acceptance speech in the small hours of Wednesday morning underlines how important this component is. He rode into victory on the back of support from Midwestern states where his supporters will want to see tangible signs of government action on jobs. New bridges and roads are an obvious way of delivering. What will help Mr Trump in this area is the bipartisan consensus that has emerged over the need for renewal of US infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers has projected a $1.44 trillion funding investment gap between 2016 and 2025 on infrastructure. Infrastructure was a component of Hillary Clinton’s plans for her first 100 days as well. Trump advisers have suggested that he is willing to increase the national debt in order to provide federal funding for infrastructure, which would give a further push to the prospects of a fiscal stimulus. The problem is that planning infrastructure projects takes time, so it is not clear how quickly the growth effects would come. What will Trump do on trade? Mr Trump’s campaign promises to rip up or renegotiate deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and combat unfair trade practices by China by imposing punitive tariffs have drawn dire warnings from economists of a potential return to recession. Were he to pull the US out of NAFTA, it would threaten the elaborate North American supply chains that many US corporations rely on. A trade war with China would yield higher prices for consumers and fuel inflation. It would also hurt companies that depend on Chinese imports as well as American farmers and other businesses for whom China has become an important export market. Delivered concurrently and in their most radical forms both pillars would yield a significant blow to US growth. For that reason some trade experts have already begun to argue that, while a Trump administration is likely to bring more anti-dumping and other high-profile trade cases against China, it may not deliver the entire radical agenda he has threatened. What about Fed reform? Mr Trump’s advisers have suggested the Fed’s ultra-stimulative policies are unfair by penalising savers and have led to unequal implications for different segments of society. During the campaign Mr Trump was ferociously critical of Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, for her low-rates policies, but she is not expected to resign before her term expires in 2018. The focus on the Fed will firstly be the filling of two vacant Fed Board seats, potentially with more hawkish policymakers. Secondly there is the question of reform proposals that have been circulating among Republicans in Congress for some time. These include measures to steer the Fed towards the use of stricter monetary rules — something it fiercely rejects. Mr Trump’s arrival could provide a boost to conservative lawmakers advocating those ideas. What does this mean for the economy? While Republicans have tended to brand themselves as the party of fiscal conservatism, their new president may lead them down the path of stimulus. And while the party used to fly the free-trade banner, Mr Trump ran on a platform of protectionism — which would alienate Republican business backers. Untangling the true policy priorities is going to be fraught. “These are promises and not proposals,” said Diane Swonk of DS Economics. “The question is which promises does he deliver to core constituencies who got him elected, and what does he deliver on the pro-business side?”

This will interest some, I suggest from 16:50 on. .

Trump doesn’t see Israeli land grab as ‘obstacle for peace’ with Palestine The Wall Street Journal / November 10, 2016 Mr. Trump does not view the settlements as being an obstacle for peace,” says Jason Greenblatt, Trumps advisor for Israel, marking a stark departure from the long-time American stance that Israeli construction in areas captured in the 1967 war makes it more difficult to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians. “The two sides are going to have to decide how to deal with that region, but it’s certainly not Mr. Trump’s view that settlement activity should be condemned and that it is an obstacle to peace. It is not the obstacle to peace.”

President Trump’s Justice Dept. could see less scrutiny of police, more surveillance of Muslims The Washington Post / November 10, 2016 The Justice Department is set to significantly shift its priorities under Donald Trump, reflecting the themes of a presidential candidate who consistently described the country as riven by chaos and in need of more powerful law enforcement. The department, which under President Obama built an aggressive civil rights division, is likely to take a more hands-off approach toward police departments alleged to have overused force and to loosen restrictions on surveillance in Muslim communities, according to legal analysts and Trump’s public statements. Trump sought to position himself as the candidate of law and order, delivering apocalyptic speeches describing a nation torn apart by crime and terror. He said police in Chicago could stop a spate of deadly violence by being “very much tougher than they are right now,” and wrote to the International Association of Chiefs of Police that he would generally keep the federal government out of local law enforcement’s business. He has been critical of Obama’s effort to give clemency to inmates serving long prison terms for nonviolent drug offenses. In response to the terrorist attack in Orlando in June, Trump said he would renew surveillance on mosques. Those positions put him at odds with the current Justice Department. Under Obama, officials have tried to position Muslims as a partner in the fight against terrorism, and they have been supportive of broad changes to the criminal-justice system, including more lenient sentences for nonviolent drug crimes. The department has also taken a tough stance toward policing issues — scrutinizing entire departments with comprehensive “pattern or practice” inquiries and investigating high-profile incidents of officers killing people. With the impending change, civil rights advocates said they are bracing for the worst. “This is a guy who will have no problem targeting civil rights leaders, targeting reporters. We’re back to a Nixon enemies-list world,” said the Rev. Al Sharpton, president of the National Action Network. “We’ve got to get ready to fight. This is serious.” The Justice Department’s policy positions and priorities often change when a Republican takes over from a Democrat, and vice versa, and in many ways, Trump’s administration will be no different. Under President George W. Bush, for example, the civil rights division took significantly fewer enforcement actions on ­anti-discrimination and voting rights laws than it did under President Bill Clinton. After Obama took office, then-Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. moved to give it back its teeth, taking aim at policies that officials thought resulted in racially disparate outcomes, even if the intent of those policies was not explicitly or intentionally racist. “The civil rights division gets whipsawed more than any other part of the Department of Justice when the White House changes parties,” said Bill Yeomans, who spent 26 years at the department, primarily in the civil rights division. “This promises to bring a dramatic shift in priorities and ideology.” Legal analysts said the core mission of the Justice Department — enforcing the nation’s federal laws — should remain the same. And they stressed that, because Trump has not yet indicated whom he will select as his attorney general, nor is he likely to follow traditional norms, it is hard to assess what his Justice Department might look like. “We’ve never had a transition like this,” said Jamie Gorelick, who served as deputy attorney general under Clinton. Two of Trump’s closest advisers — former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have federal legal experience. Both were U.S. attorneys, and Giuliani served as the Justice Department’s third-highest-ranking official under President Ronald Reagan. Giuliani has staked his reputation on the drop in crime during his time as mayor. Officers under him employed controversial stop-and-frisk tactics that a federal court in 2013 ruled were unconstitutional. Both Giuliani and Trump have made the dubious claim that the tactics drove down crime. Christie, likewise, built his political career on his image as a tough-on-crime former prosecutor, talking extensively during his presidential primary campaign about his national security prosecutions. The governor, though, has been tainted by the “Bridgegate” scandal, in which two of his former aides were convicted last week of conspiring to shut down the nation’s busiest bridge to punish a local mayor who refused to support Christie’s reelection bid. After his inauguration, Trump will face an early test in what, if anything, he decides to do with the investigation of Democratic presidential rival Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Although FBI Director James B. Comey recommended no charges in that case, Trump has said that he would appoint a special prosecutor to look into the matter and that, if he were president, Clinton would “be in jail.” Trump could, in theory, order his attorney general to appoint a special prosecutor to reinvestigate the former secretary of state, although many conservatives argue that it would be ill-advised to do so. Analysts say Trump already will have to contend with the perception that the Justice Department is partisan. “If anything has become clear as a result of the Justice Department’s recent involvement in political affairs, it’s that the public needs to be reassured that it’s substance, not politics, that drives Justice Department decision-making,” said George Terwilliger, who served as deputy attorney general under President George H.W. Bush. Whomever Trump appoints will take over a department that has regularly waded into eruptions of anger that followed the deaths of black men and boys at the hands of police officers. In recent months, the Justice Department has opened investigations of fatal police shootings in Baton Rouge and Tulsa. The department also is investigating the Chicago police force, the country’s second-biggest local department, after video footage emerged of an officer fatally shooting a teenager there. A U.S. official familiar with the investigation said that it is “unlikely” that the inquiry will wrap up before Trump is sworn in, and that once the new Justice Department leaders are in place, they could react to the investigation by deciding to take out some required reforms. The official said, though, that it was unlikely that new leadership would opt to override the results of the Chicago investigation or others that resulted in reform agreements already in place. Such inquiries are carried out by career officials rather than political appointees. “I can’t imagine that they would come in and undo those” existing agreements, the official said. “But would they initiate a new one in the future? They might be a little less likely to do those.” Giuliani, speaking to the Cleveland Police Patrolmen’s Association in October, said that court-mandated police reform agreements show how the Justice ­Department has become “politicized” during the Obama administration. It is possible, were he to be appointed attorney general, that the department would simply stop suing police departments to bring about new agreements, or even enforce old ones, analysts said. “The consent decree agreements already in place — they could just choose not to enforce. They can let it all die by doing nothing,” said Jonathan Smith, who for five years was the Justice Department’s chief of special litigation, overseeing investigations of police departments. Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch, who has been outspoken on the issue of race and policing, announced recently that the FBI will begin a project next year to start collecting nationwide use-of-force statistics in hopes of building a national database. Trump, in response to questions from the International Association of Chiefs of Police, seemed skeptical to the idea, writing that “the federal government should not be in the habit of demanding data from local or state law enforcement organizations.” “Crime reporting should take place, but the management of local and state law enforcement should be left to those jurisdictions,” he wrote. Sharpton and others said they are strategizing how they will apply pressure to Trump and his advisers, with the hopes of influencing his selection of attorney general, the Cabinet post most vital to issues of civil rights. “We’ve fought for years, for decades on these issues. It is all at risk,” Sharpton said. The American Civil Liberties Union, after Trump’s election, vowed to challenge in court any of his policies that might run afoul of U.S. law. Many of Trump’s changes, though, probably would draw support. The Fraternal Order of Police, which has more than 335,000 members and describes itself as the country’s biggest police union, endorsed Trump in September. “Our membership . . . is pretty energized by the results of the election,” Jim Pasco, the union’s executive director, said Wednesday. Chuck Wexler, executive director of the Police Executive Research Forum, said that after Trump’s comments about violent crime, immigration, drugs and terrorism, it remains to be seen whether his administration will provide more resources or try to expand its assistance to state and local jurisdictions in how they confront those issues. “It’s a different administration, and they will have different priorities, and they will put their resources where they think is important,” he said. “He definitely has expressed support for officers on the street. That did not go unnoticed. The question is: When you get into policy, how does that translate?”

Trump’s Vow to Target China’s Currency Could Be First Step to Trade War The Wall Street Journal / November 10, 2016 Unlike Mr. Trump’s many other policy promises, his commitment to sanction Beijing for its currency policy has been one of his most explicit Donald Trump’s pledge to declare China a currency manipulator on day one of his presidency raises the prospect of U.S. tariffs on the Asian giant that figure to push their relationship onto new, contentious ground. The threat, which Mr. Trump has made repeatedly, risks sparking a trade war with China that would complicate negotiations on a host of other strategic and economic issues. It also risks sparking a legal backlash by U.S. importers. Unlike Mr. Trump’s many other policy promises, his commitment to sanction China for its currency policy has been one of his most explicit, and was included in his Gettysburg, Pa., speech that outlined his first-100-days action plan. By itself, the currency-manipulation designation has little practical effect. It requires an escalation in negotiations with currency offenders and gives the White House power to preclude countries from some U.S. financing and trade deals. If used in conjunction with other laws that give the president broad authority to unilaterally sanction trade partners, however, Mr. Trump could use the designation to justify costly fees on imports from China, as he has also promised. “Trump has a lot of legal authority to intervene in trade,” said Michael Gadbaw, a former U.S. Trade Representative attorney who is now a Georgetown University law professor. Under the Foreign Trade Act of 1974, for example, “he could determine that this is an unreasonable and unjustifiable restriction on trade, and use that authority to impose tariffs on China,” Mr. Gadbaw said. Few economists would dispute Beijing kept the value of its exchange rate artificially low for more than a decade to gain an unfair export advantage against trade competitors. That competitive devaluation helped transform the nation into the world’s second-largest economy at the expense of manufacturers in the U.S. and other countries. But over the past two years, Chinese authorities have burned through nearly $1 trillion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves to prop up the yuan against heavy downward pressure on the currency. A fast-cooling economy has led to an unprecedented exodus of capital out of the country, tugging the currency down with it. “The fact is that China has not manipulated for over two years,” said Fred Bergsten, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a longtime advocate for stronger trade sanctions against Beijing for its yuan policy. “It would be highly inappropriate and inaccurate to label them a manipulator at this time.” Still, Mr. Trump could use his authority in the Treasury Department’s semiannual currency report to Congress, due out in April next year, to censure China as part of a broader strategy to leverage trade concessions from Beijing. Gregory Daco, an Oxford Economics economist, says he thinks Mr. Trump will most likely refrain from imposing 45% trade tariffs on China, as he proposed many times during the campaign. But he could threaten to use more targeted and limited protectionist measures. China’s finance and commerce ministries didn’t respond to questions about the potential for a more protectionist U.S. under Mr. Trump, or of Washington labeling China a currency manipulator. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said Thursday that Beijing was still waiting to assess the new administration’s policies toward China. Chinese exporters and economists, meanwhile, warned of a backlash for U.S. firms. “If there really is a 45% tariff, I don’t think Boeing will sell any more airplanes in China,” said Lawrence Lau, an economics professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong. Investors, analysts and economists are uncertain whether Mr. Trump’s policies as president will match his campaign rhetoric as a candidate. Many say they are counting on his move into the White House, with the burden of responsibility that comes with leading the world’s largest economy, to moderate his most controversial economic proposals. Even if Mr. Trump’s trade sanctions were temporary, many experts believe Beijing would respond in kind. That is one reason why the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook in October a surge in global protectionist measures could sap global gross domestic product by more than 1.5% over the next several years. “China probably would retaliate and that’s problematic for us,” said Matthew Goodman, a top Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Besides the economic fallout from a trade war, imposing punitive tariffs could also endanger Washington’s already strained diplomacy with Beijing on many other economic and strategic issues. The U.S. has been trying to negotiate greater access for U.S. companies into Chinese markets, including through a bilateral investment treaty. American firms want to be able to take advantage of the business opportunities that a billion-plus population moving into the middle class represents. Washington has also been encouraging Beijing to wind down a massive overhang of excess industrial-production capacity swamping global markets, pushing down prices and forcing U.S. layoffs. U.S.-China relations have also been on edge over escalating cybersecurity tensions, Beijing’s reluctance to rein in North Korea’s nuclear weapons ambitions, and maritime border conflicts that threaten to turn into dangerous regional conflagrations. The new president could also find himself embroiled in a legal challenges from U.S. companies such as Apple Inc. that rely on Chinese imports as part of their global product supply chains.

Donald Trump’s Transition Team: We Will ‘Dismantle’ Dodd-Frank The Wall Street Journal / November 10, 2016 GOP eager to make litany of changes that until recently stood little chance of avoiding President Barack Obama’s veto President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team promised to dismantle the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, declaring that the coming administration will seek to remake the way the U.S. oversees the financial sector. Tuesday’s Republican sweep, and Mr. Trump’s commitment to focus on the issue, has the GOP salivating over a wish list of Dodd-Frank changes that until recently stood little chance of avoiding President Barack Obama’s veto pen. The lineup includes everything from regulatory exemptions for community banks and regional banks to a new regime for insurers and asset managers to curbs on the federal government’s influence over consumer-finance products such as mortgages and payday loans. The brief note on Mr. Trump’s new website was the first time since Tuesday’s election that the president-elect addressed financial regulatory policy. It was consistent with Mr. Trump’s campaign-trail rhetoric, blaming the Obama administration’s signature response to the financial crisis for a tepid economy and promising to “replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation,” but providing few details. Another sign that Mr. Trump may make Dodd-Frank overhaul a priority is the news that his transition team is considering as a candidate for Treasury secretary one of the leading critics of Dodd-Frank on Capitol Hill. People familiar with the matter said that in Trump aides’ preliminary discussions about possible candidates to fill that slot, they are looking at Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who has crafted a deregulatory alternative to the 2010 law. Mr. Trump’s talk of deregulation has helped fuel a rally in bank stocks this week. After struggling for much of 2016, bank stocks rose sharply Wednesday and Thursday. The KBW Nasdaq Bank index now is up nearly 12% on the year, about double the gain in the S&P 500. European bank stocks also leapt, reflecting hopes the U.S. will no longer aggressively push tougher regulations on global banks. Banks by and large would welcome a re-examination of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other elements of Dodd-Frank, but they also have much invested in the law, which they point to as evidence that bailouts are a thing of the past. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein said at a conference sponsored by the New York Times on Thursday that it “could be appropriate to look at” repealing some parts of Dodd-Frank, but he added that he wouldn’t “want to repeal in toto.” Whether Mr. Trump can keep his vow to upend Dodd-Frank, and how far those changes will reach, depends in large part on what happens in Congress. Financial regulation hasn’t been mentioned by Mr. Trump as something he would thrust on the White House’s agenda during his first 100 days in office and Republicans are tempering expectations. “I don’t think that you’re going to see major efforts to throw out Dodd Frank wholesale,” said a person who has advised the Trump campaign on regulatory policy. Mr. Hensarling last year laid out a blueprint for replacing Dodd-Frank that many observers view as a starting point. In an interview Thursday, he said the Trump team’s statement “is music to my ears,” and that he planned to make the bill, dubbed the Financial CHOICE Act, his top priority next year. He said he had spoken with Mr. Trump’s team about the matter in the past, adding: “I think they like the thrust of the legislation and many major components of it.” As for the prospect of him taking the Treasury slot, the Texas lawmaker said he would “certainly have the discussion” if the Trump administration comes calling, “but I’m not anticipating the telephone call.” Mr. Hensarling’s bill is built around a trade-off: Banks can free themselves from various regulations, such as tough stress testing, as long as they maintain capital equal to at least 10% of total assets and high ratings from their regulator. That would immediately help many small locally focused banks that tend to be better capitalized, but not necessarily megabanks with sprawling international operations that generally have capital levels below that level. In the interview, Mr. Hensarling said he would try to convince Mr. Trump’s team to support his approach instead of their campaign-trail promise to reinstate the Depression-era Glass-Steagall law separating traditional lending from investment banking. Mr. Hensarling’s bill also would make other significant changes, such as requiring that many financial regulations be subject to cost-benefit analysis for the first time and tying the budgets of regulatory agencies, including the CFPB, to congressional appropriations. The CFPB has enjoyed a high level of independence by getting its funds from revenues insulated from the legislative process. It is possible Senate Democrats could seek to block GOP efforts they view as overreach, but lobbyists and congressional aides are optimistic that some moderate Democrats up for re-election in 2018 in states that voted for Mr. Trump will be inclined to compromise. Republicans also may come under pressure to change the Senate rules to ease passage of controversial legislation, but it is far from clear they would make that move.

Donald Trump’s NAFTA Plan Would Confront Globalized Auto Industry The Wall Street Journal / November 10, 2016 Tens of thousands of parts that make up a vehicle often come from multiple producers in different countries and travel back and forth across borders several times Jody Fledderman is one of five original employees at the auto-parts factory his father founded in rural Batesville, Ind. He also spends a lot of time at the company’s 97,000-square-foot plant in central Mexico. The two operations have expanded together as automotive production in both countries boomed. Mr. Fledderman credits the success of Batesville Tool & Die Inc., where he is president, in part to the addition of a Mexican plant 16 years ago that helps service Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co. and other clients on both sides of the border. “We have three or four clients back in Indiana that we wouldn’t have had if we weren’t here,” Mr. Fledderman, 54 years old, said in an interview at the plant in Querétaro. President-elect Donald Trump has said that in his first days in office he will begin renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, which connects Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and leave the pact if Mexico doesn’t agree to improved terms for the U.S. He blames unfair trade, in particular with Mexico and China, for the loss of millions of factory jobs. Ending the 1994 trade pact is relatively easy. The U.S. legally can pull out of Nafta six months after Mr. Trump as president notifies Mexico and Canada of his intention to do so, according to a September study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Imposing tariffs on imports lies within the authority of U.S. presidents. For the auto industry, as Mr. Fledderman’s business shows, such a change would be substantially more complicated, because of the multilayered connections between U.S. and foreign suppliers and assembly points. The tens of thousands of parts that make up any vehicle often come from multiple producers in different countries and travel back and forth across borders several times. This is a tenet of modern manufacturing: Where a product is ultimately assembled increasingly has little bearing on where its component parts are made. Assembly plants are prized engines of local economies because they tend to pay better than most factories. Mr. Trump has repeatedly criticized Ford Motor Co.’s plan to move assembly of its Focus compact from Wayne, Mich., to Mexico, vowing to impose a steep tariff on the car if Ford follows through. Ford executives have said moving the Focus to Mexico won’t result in American job losses and that the company remains committed to producing in the U.S. But more than half the parts in the Focus today are made outside the U.S. and Canada, including 20% in Mexico. Ford also ships in some of the car’s engines from Spain and transmissions from Germany. Similarly, only 10% of the parts that go into the 200,000 BMW luxury crossovers built each year in Spartanburg, S.C., come from U.S. and Canadian plants, according to U.S. government data. The rest are imported from Europe and elsewhere. BMW in turn exports most of the Spartanburg plant’s production around the world. By contrast, 70% of the components in the Honda CR-Vs assembled in Guadalajara, Mexico—the production of which soon will be moved to central Indiana—are currently made by U.S. and Canada-based factories, data show. The parts that make up a car or truck, from bolts to motor blocks, window lifts to oil filters, account for two-thirds of its value, according to the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association, a trade group. U.S. assembly plants vary on the amount of U.S.-made components they use. A Chevy Silverado pickup built in Indiana has 51% parts content from Mexico, according to the window sticker, while Ford’s exclusively U.S.-assembled F-Series truck, the country’s top selling vehicle for 39 years straight, has 70% U.S. and Canadian content. “This industry, particularly in North America, has integrated a lot,” said Thomas Klier, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago who specializes on automotive supply chains. Such integration poses a challenge for anyone wanting to buy an entirely U.S.-made vehicle. “You can’t buy an American-made car anymore. You can buy an American-assembled car,” said Loren Baisden, 32, a 13-year veteran of Ford’s assembly line now working at the company’s heavy-truck chassis plant in Avon Lake, Ohio. Auto makers and many primary suppliers have moved some high-tech production to Mexico and elsewhere. Lower-tier suppliers typically relegate labor-intensive production such as assembling wire harnesses or sewing materials for seats to low-wage Mexico plants while keeping more highly skilled and automated tasks at their U.S. factories. That strategy allows auto makers and their suppliers to be cost competitive with Asian and European imports, analysts say. “The free flow of components is integral to the supply chain in auto manufacturing,” Steve Arthur, an automotive analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said Thursday. It is “a situation not easily or inexpensively reversed.” Still, with so much final assembly moving to Mexico, the epicenter of North American auto production, which for more than a century has been deeply rooted in the Midwest, is moving an average of 14 miles toward the Southwest annually, according to a 2014 analysis by IHS Markit Automotive Advisory, the consultancy. The neighboring small Indiana cities of Anderson and Muncie, which straddle Interstate 69 less than hour’s drive north of Indianapolis, have been suffering that migration for more than three decades, as General Motors Co. and its suppliers have decamped for the south. The cities collectively have lost tens of thousands of high paying factory jobs. Mursix Corp., a family-owned supplier company on the edge of Muncie, has been under increasing pressure to move some operations to Mexico to be closer to big Japanese and U.S. firms located there. The maker of switches, connectors and other electronic components exports about 60% of what it produces, primarily to Mexico, company president Todd Murray said. The company is losing two product lines to suppliers located near his customers’ Mexico plants, he said. “That scares me,” said Mr. Murray, 47, whose company opened a plant in China 11 years ago to win business there. “I see that [competition] becoming more aggressive in the years to come.” Mr. Murray said Wednesday that if a Trump administration overhauls or scraps Nafta, and gets tough with China, it could ultimately help him fend off that competition. In the short run, he said, the healthier operating margins available to companies producing in Mexico will outweigh any new U.S. import duties. With the right policy mix, including lower corporate taxes, Mr. Murray said, any profits from Mexico operations could be invested to create cutting-edge technology jobs in the U.S. U.S. and Canada-based factories shipped nearly $29 billion worth of parts to Mexico in 2015, according to INA, the Mexican auto-parts industry’s national association. Mexican plants in turn sent more than $61 billion worth of parts to the two Nafta partners, accounting for much of the trade surplus Mexico has with the U.S. About a third of Mexico’s 1,300 suppliers, which employ some 720,000 people, are U.S. owned, according INA. Mexican, Asian and European companies make up a growing share of U.S.-based suppliers, which the U.S. Labor Department says provide jobs for nearly 600,000 Americans. Mr. Fledderman’s Batesville Tool & Die produces an array of components for the automotive, appliance and other supply chains. The 38-year-old company is a primary supplier to Honda and makes parts for Swedish air bag maker Autoliv AB, currently its biggest Mexico customer. Some components, including engine hood hinges, oil filter seals and air bag parts, are made on both sides of the border to be closer to customers who demand quick and reliable delivery of parts. The plant in Batesville, a town of 6,000 staked amid the corn and soy fields of hilly southern Indiana, also handles product design and employs robots and a 3-D printer to make more intricate or larger parts. The Batesville factory has expanded five times in recent years as the company’s North American business has surged. The company now employs 800 people, evenly divided between its two factories, and has annual revenue of $130 million, up from $8 million in 1989, when Mr. Fledderman took over. “You don’t make any money producing things that everybody in every corner of the world can make,” said Mr. Fledderman, who recently returned to Indiana from his latest tour of Eastern Europe, where he sniffed out opportunities. “If it’s not Mexico, then it’s Poland or Vietnam or wherever. We’re not the low-cost country in the world.” Auto production in Mexico by U.S., Asian and European auto makers has boomed in the past decade, nearly doubling to reach 3.4 million light vehicles last year. Despite the surge in Mexico, nearly 60% of the 17.5 million light vehicles sold in the U.S. last year were assembled within a so-called auto alley that runs from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico, said James Rubenstein, a geographer at Miami University of Ohio who writes extensively about the industry. Imports from Nafta partners Mexico and Canada, which contain a heavy mix of North American made parts, account for much of the rest. The auto-parts industry alone accounted for about 14% of the $531 billion in U.S.-Mexico trade in 2015, according to U.S. government data. “In this day and age, when so much manufacturing has left the U.S., the auto industry is a striking exception,” Mr. Rubenstein said. “It’s not a win-lose situation. It’s dividing up the growth. Mexico is winning, but so is auto alley.” In Anderson, Ind., a business incubator and economic development project known as the Flagship Enterprise Center—a joint effort by the city government and Anderson University financed in part with federal grants—tries to attract industrial investment and to foster development of advanced technology, such as electric automotive engines. “There was a realization that no one was coming to pull us out of the deep water. We got together and started pulling ourselves up,” said Charles Staley, 70, a former senior engineer at GM’s defunct Delco-Remy subsidiary in Anderson, who now heads the enterprise center. “Today, it’s stable,” he said of the local economy. “We’re growing. We’re expanding.” So far, 17 foreign companies, including Swiss foods giant Nestlé SA and NTN Corp., the Japanese drive shaft maker, have located plants in the city, only a few them tied to the automotive industry. Purdue University, which has one of the largest U.S. engineering programs, plans to open a polytechnic campus next spring on land where a GM plant once stood. “Have we replaced all the jobs we lost? No. But we’ve got the first 5,000 or 6,000 in,” said Greg Winkler, Anderson’s director of economic development. “What we’re doing now is finding a way to reintegrate this city into the global conversation.” .

In order to have a sustainable society, we must keep our environment in check. For example, there are many American cities where, in some areas, cancer rates run high due to industrial waste. Recall Love Canal. Clean air is rational, but attaining that desired outcome must be done rationally.

Beijing plans rival Asia-Pacific trade deal after Trump victory The Financial Times / November 10, 2016 China moves to fill gap amid expectations next US president will refuse to ratify TPP Chinese President Xi Jinping is rekindling efforts to promote a rival to the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. China was excluded from the TPP, which the Obama administration signed earlier this year with Japan and 10 other countries and promoted as a strategic response to Beijing’s rise and its growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. But Mr Trump put opposition to the pact at the heart of his campaign and his election has killed the prospects of its ratification by the US Congress. (TPP signatory countries: the US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Chile and Peru. South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines have expressed interest in joining.) The void has offered Beijing an opportunity to argue for faster adoption of a broader Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. With Mr Xi set to travel to Peru this month for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit, vice-foreign minister Li Baodong said China’s plan could fill the void. Chinese officials have previously sought to promote the proposal at APEC, only to encounter resistance from US officials who wanted to prioritize TPP negotiations. “Protectionism is rearing its head and the Asia-Pacific region faces insufficient growth momentum,” said Mr. Li. “China believes we should set a new plan to respond to the expectations of industry and sustain momentum for the early establishment of a free trade area.” US officials have warned for months that the failure of the TPP would open the door to China to promote its own trade agreements. “We are seeing that play out in real time,” said US trade representative Mike Froman. “We are the only ones who are going to be left on the sidelines as others move forward if [TPP] doesn’t happen.” China’s efforts have been focused on wrapping up talks over a deal known as the “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership” with the 10 members* of ASEAN and other countries including Australia and India. (ASEAN members: Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.) But Beijing’s move on Thursday to seize the lead role as the top power advocating regional trade deals highlights the shift in US policy to come with Mr Trump’s election and how China is likely to take advantage. “[China] are stepping into the vacuum that is likely to be there in a Trump administration” with regard to trade negotiations, says Matthew Goodman, senior adviser on Asian economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. China’s move came after the lower house of Japan’s parliament voted to ratify the TPP on Thursday. Following weeks of bitter political argument, the ruling coalition of prime minister Shinzo Abe ended debate and pushed TPP through. But with the US president-elect having vowed to ditch TPP, which would encompass nearly 40 per cent of the global economy, members of the ruling Liberal Democratic party fear they have expended political capital for nothing. The TPP cannot come into force without US ratification and its failure will leave a huge gap in Mr Abe’s economic program. By slashing Japan’s tariffs on food, Mr Abe hoped the deal would lead to reform and greater efficiency in agriculture. In anticipation of a Hillary Clinton victory, Japan’s government had rushed to ratify the deal, fearing she might seek to renegotiate parts of it. TPP now goes to the upper house, where its passage is assured. Under Japanese rules for ratification of treaties, if the upper house does not approve TPP within 30 days, it will automatically enter into law. Toshihiro Nikai, secretary-general of Mr Abe’s LDP, indicated that Japan had not yet given up on persuading the US. “As an independent parliament it’s important for us to put Japan’s position openly and clearly,” he said. Mr Abe plans to meet Mr Trump in New York next week and TPP is likely to be high on the agenda. Eizo Kobayashi, chairman of the Japan Foreign Trade Council, praised the passage of TPP and indicated that he too had not given up. “To aid the ratification of TPP by the US and other participants, we have high expectations for an early passage through the Diet,” he said.

Fiat Chrysler, GM Soar as Trump May Weaken Fuel-Economy Rule Bloomberg / November 11, 2016 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) gained the most in two years and General Motors the most in a year after President-elect Donald Trump selected a prominent critic of global warming to lead his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transition team. Tesla Motors, which is betting big on alternative energy, declined. The EPA is scheduled next year to evaluate President Barack Obama’s ambitious fuel-economy regulations that were originally intended to double the efficiency of the nation’s light-vehicle fleet to 54.5 miles per gallon of gasoline by 2025. Myron Ebell, a director at the Washington-based Competitive Enterprise Institute and climate-change skeptic, is leading the agency’s transition to the Trump administration. “We believe it is unlikely that new fuel-economy rules will be passed or that existing ones will be strengthened,” says Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Jonas. “Enforcement and preservation of current CAFE standards is unclear.” That could be positive for automakers looking to sell more profitable pickups and sport utility vehicles and negative for makers of hybrids or pure-electric vehicles. Fiat Chrysler, which sells the highest proportion of light trucks among the biggest automakers, surged 9.7 percent, the most since Oct. 29, 2014, to close at $7.59. GM climbed 5.7 percent, the most since Oct. 21, 2015, to $32.73. Ford finished at $11.94, a 3.1 percent gain, the biggest since April 28. ‘Demote’ the EPA Trump will “follow the national Republican Party platform on the EPA, which will actually demote it as an agency and have it report to a joint bipartisan committee and essentially take away much of its independence,” says automotive economist Sean McAlinden. “The CAFE rules would be canceled,” he added, referring to the corporate average fuel economy standards. Even if Trump doesn’t scrap it entirely, his administration may “lessen the stringency” of the four-decade old program, says Kelley Blue Book analyst Jack Nerad. “I would think auto companies would prefer that,” he said. “They would look at that as somebody who would not put another roadblock between them and the consumer.” Weaker fuel-economy rules may accelerate the shift from cars to pickups, SUVs and vans as well as reduce demand for hybrids or pure-electric vehicles. American depositary receipts of Toyota Motor Corp., the maker of the Prius hybrid line and top seller of cars in the U.S., fell 0.8 percent to close at $110.86, and those of Nissan Motor Co., which invested heavily in its Leaf electric car and sells the fewest trucks among the top six automakers, dropped 4.9 percent to $18.65. Tesla, the Palo Alto, California-based company that produces only electric vehicles and is buying solar-panel installer SolarCity Corp., declined 2.5 percent for a second straight day to close at $185.35. Also Thursday, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers sent an eight-page letter to the Trump transition team with a series of recommendations, including aligning programs run by the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Inconsistent rules threaten to saddle the industry with “potentially billions of dollars in fines,” said the trade group, which represents most of the world’s biggest automakers including GM, Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen AG. The alliance asked for a presidential panel to review all auto regulations, including fuel-economy rules, as consumers continue to reject efficient cars and electrified vehicles in favor of pickups and SUVs. “The combination of low gas prices and the existing fuel efficiency gains from the early years of the program is undercutting consumer willingness to buy the vehicles with more expensive alternative powertrains,” the group said.

From Obamacare to Yellen: What can Trump do? The Financial Times / November 10, 2016 Five questions on the limits on the president-elect as he heads for the White House Donald Trump repeatedly promised during his campaign to overhaul or repeal some of President Barack Obama’s signature policies, including his healthcare and financial reforms, on “day one”. He has also said he wants to change the people at the top of the Federal Reserve and the judiciary, which are independent parts of the US government. But the US system is famous for its checks and balances, which make it hard for one branch of government, even the president, to act unilaterally. So how fast can things change after Mr Trump takes over on January 20? Can Mr Trump repeal Obamacare? Mr Trump has vowed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare” in his first 100 days in office. The law, enacted in 2010, has extended health insurance to 20m Americans but it has come under criticism for its rising costs. US government figures released in October showed that insurance premiums in the program will jump by an average of 25 per cent next year. To replace or fully roll back Obamacare, Mr Trump needs Congress to pass a new law, which is entirely possible. Republicans control both the House and the Senate, and their leadership shares his distaste for the law. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell has called it the “single worst piece” of legislation passed during Obama’s presidency. But the process could become bogged down if Congress and Mr Trump do not agree on what should replace it. Should he desire, Mr Trump could take other steps to cut back the program unilaterally. For example, he could stop enforcing certain Obamacare provisions, such as the individual mandate that requires most people to have insurance, or refuse to approve states’ changes to their Medicaid programs for low-income people. Can Mr Trump replace Janet Yellen? In May, Mr Trump said he would “most likely” replace Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen if elected, telling CNBC that Ms Yellen is “not a Republican” and that it would be “appropriate” to put someone new in the position when her four-year term expires in February 2018. As president, Mr Trump will have the power to nominate all members of the central bank’s Board of Governors to 14-year terms. He also appoints the Federal Reserve chair and vice-chair to four-year terms. However, Federal Reserve governors may not be removed from office before their terms run out except for “cause”, which does not include their policy views. Will Mr Trump scrap Dodd-Frank? Mr Trump has sent mixed signals on his plans for financial regulation, but said he wants to come “close to dismantling” Dodd-Frank, the complex 2010 Wall Street reform act aimed at preventing a repeat of the financial crisis. Many Republicans in Congress abhor the reform law, which created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and includes 2,000 pages of new regulations, including tighter capital requirements for banks and the so-called “Volcker rule” that clamps down on banks’ ability to bet their own money. Key Republicans in Congress, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, have floated Dodd-Frank reform plans. But as with Obamacare, the difficulty will be in agreeing on the details. Democrats do not have the votes to stop a new law on their own, but they can make political hay from provisions that appear to go too easy on Wall Street. However, Mr Trump can reshape some financial regulation more quickly by using the regulatory process. He will be able to appoint new chairs to each of the main financial watchdogs, who could then rewrite or repeal the detailed rules that spell out how the principles laid down in Dodd-Frank apply in practice. For example, a new chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could rewrite the rules governing the trading and clearing of interest rate and credit derivatives, and take a more relaxed approach. Mr Trump could also seek to defang the CFPB without killing it by appointing a new director who is more friendly to industry than the incumbent, Richard Cordray. However, there is an ongoing legal dispute over the president’s power to remove a CFPB director. The brokerage industry is hoping that Mr Trump will also move quickly to scrap another regulation put in place recently by the US Labor Department that requires financial advisers to act in the best interests of their clients. One of Mr Trump’s top Wall Street advisers, Anthony Scaramucci, has said the president-elect will repeal the rule, which can be done without congressional approval. Will Mr Trump make the Supreme Court more conservative? The highest US court consists of nine justices, who are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. They serve until they die in office, resign or retire. The court currently has four Democratic appointees and four put in place by Republicans. There is one vacancy created by the death earlier this year of conservative Antonin Scalia. Mr Obama nominated centrist appeals court judge Merrick Garland in March, but Senate Republicans refused to vote on his appointment. Mr Trump has already published a list of 21 people that he would consider to fill Justice Scalia’s vacancy, but a right-leaning appointment by Mr Trump would not alter the balance of opinions on the high court. There are also three justices in their 70s or early 80s — liberal justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 83 years old, while liberal Stephen Breyer is 78 and justice Anthony Kennedy, who is a Republican but has been the swing vote on crucial issues, is 80. If any of them step down, Mr Trump would be in a position to shift the court more decisively to the right on issues such as abortion and gay rights. All Supreme Court appointments need the approval of a simple majority of the Senate, but if one party filibusters, or seeks to stop an appointment with an extended debate, a so-called “supermajority” of 60 senators is needed to end the debate and force a vote. After Tuesday’s election, the Senate will have 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats and two independents who generally vote with the Democrats. The open Louisiana seat is scheduled for a December run-off election. Will Mr Trump roll back environmental protection? Mr Trump, who has called climate change a hoax invented by China to make US manufacturers uncompetitive, has vowed to “cancel” the Paris climate agreement, which was adopted last year and received the approval of 55 countries last month. No single country can abolish the Paris deal. But Mr Trump could decline to participate in the accord and refuse to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the US — non-compliance that is unlikely to result in any penalty. Mr Trump has also promised to open up more federal land to oil and gas drilling and coal mining, while diminishing the role of the Environmental Protection Agency. He has talked about scrapping a range of environmental regulations, including Mr Obama’s $5bn Clean Power Plan, which seeks to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, changes to the Clean Power Plan or other environmental laws would likely face legal challenges from environmental groups. .

From 2004 to 2010, U.S. truck engines were nothing less than advanced science experiments, all thanks to the EPA. The under-hood temperatures of Mack brand trucks was so hot that plastic reservoirs were melting. Given the price point of US market trucks, and the technology at hand, it was a walk out into the darkness, at immense cost to the US market truck operator. Truth be told, the EPA's ignorant demands, pushing too far too quickly, are worthy of congressional investigation. The government should provide compensation payments to buyers of 2004-2009 model year trucks. And you also had the EPA, who is not in the business of designing and manufacturing truck engines, advocating unacceptably higher levels of EGR. We did successfully use EGR in Europe thru Euro 5. The US trucks, to meet that lower price point, had cheaper components that couldn't hold up.

Military celebrating Donald Trump's win The Washington Post / November 10, 2016 Like many Americans, active-duty service members stationed around the world were stunned at Tuesday's night's presidential race results. "More than one person has compared it to the day Osama [Bin Laden] was killed," said one Army officer, referring to the day the al-Qaida leader was killed during a raid by U.S. Navy SEALs. "I guess there's a feeling among soldiers that Trump will care about them and fix everything they see as broken about the Army." The officer, who like others spoke on the condition anonymity because of his active-duty status, also passed on a Snapchat image from a fellow Army officer. The picture depicted an alcoholic beverage with white text superimposed over the half-full glass that said: "Taking flag off wall, resigning commission tomorrow." As a traditionally Republican stalwart, the U.S. military appears to be embracing real estate executive Donald Trump's Wednesday presidential win, though there is also a healthy amount of reservation as well, according to nearly a dozen active-duty service members interviewed for this report. Pictures and videos were also circulating of soldiers celebrating the victory across the United States. At the Army's National Training Center at Fort Irwin, California, soldiers cheered in their barracks as Trump's electoral vote count broached 270. Overseas in places like Afghanistan and Iraq, however, the response was more muted. A soldier serving in southern Afghanistan said that the election was barely discussed at his small base. Afghanistan in particular received hardly any attention during the presidential race. The soldier said troops were more focused on what was going to be for dinner last night. Outside Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city and the site of a bloody campaign against the Islamic State, BuzzFeed's Mike Giglio tweeted a few impressions from the soldiers with whom he was embedded. "Last night no one wanted to sleep. We stayed up on the phones trying to watch results come back," he quoted one soldier as saying. "Our TV screen: drone footage on one half, FOX & CNN on the other," another soldier said. Many in uniform said that they see support for Trump, with his vague foreign policy goals, as more of a referendum on former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who many rank-and-file troops view with suspicion for handling classified material in a manner that would garner severe punishments if they had acted in a similar manner. They also said that they see Trump as a candidate that could usher in serious change on the military's cultural issues, including gender integration. Service members interviewed for this report spoke of what they see as a groundswell of potential for Trump reversing the effects of the 2013 sequester and an announcement that same year by the Obama administration that opened all combat jobs to women. The decision was finalized by Defense Secretary Ashton Carter in December 2015. Two active-duty enlisted infantry Marines, one at a sniper school and another in an infantry battalion, said some members of their units hope Trump looks at the data provided by the Marine Corps on its gender integration studies and comes to a conclusion that isn't "political" and hopefully reverses the decision to allow women in combat roles. In 2014, the Marines started a nine-month experiment with a gender integrated infantry unit that concluded with mixed results. A female Army lieutenant, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that she was worried about losing some of the gains that women in the military have made in recent years. She said that she didn't trust Vice President-elect Mike Pence to believe in gender equality. At the Pentagon and higher headquarters, where the military's bureaucracy is a maze of offices and acronyms, troops stationed there are worried that Trump might not have the firmest grasp on how the defense of the country actually works, and they said that they are increasingly concerned about how mission priorities and resources might be shuffled - for better or for worse - in the coming months. It is unclear and probably difficult to say whether Trump's support is split between officer and enlisted lines, as those interviewed for this report said pockets of both supported and decried the candidate. On Wednesday morning, Carter issued a statement about the election to the Pentagon, but the short paragraph did not mention Trump by name. "I am very proud of the way each and every one of you conducted yourselves during this campaign, standing apart from politics and instead focusing on your sacred mission of providing security," Carter said. "I am committed to overseeing the orderly transition to the next Commander-in-Chief. I know I can count on you to execute all your duties with the excellence our citizens know they can expect."

The head of VW’s truck group, Andreas Renschler, absolutely wants to participate in the US market. He’s made that point abundantly clear. I can tell you that re-entering the US market has always been on the table at Scania, long before Volkswagen took control. Scania can and has built conventional cab trucks.......for decades (we call them T-Series). There’s no question that Scania can engineer an 80,000lb (36,287kg) GVW North American market heavy truck (Although I’d rather see America adopt higher GVWs, at least 90,000lb (40,823kg), and efficient B-trains on applicable roadways). When Renschler came into the picture, MAN was already active in North America, marine engines aside, allowing Navistar to produce MAN D20 and D26 engines under a 2004 license agreement. VW holds MAN close, because it’s German, and because it doesn’t enjoy high profitability for the same reasons that the namesake Volkswagen car brand barely makes a profit – the German Works Council (union) and Germany's social welfare policies including its co-determination act of 1976 (Mitbestimmungsgesetz) which requires that half the seats on a company's board be held by Works Council (union) members (companies with over 2,000 employees). VW, however, gives Scania a great deal of autonomy because the company is the most profitable and innovative truckmaker in the world Scania North America (http://www.scania.com/us/en/home) has been extremely successful, and the 2015 truck engine supply agreement* with Oshkosh makes it more so. * http://www.ttnews.com/articles/basetemplate.aspx?storyid=37987

The White House Office of the Press Secretary November 10, 2016 Remarks by President Obama and President-elect Trump After Meeting Oval Office 12:36 P.M. EST PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, I just had the opportunity to have an excellent conversation with President-elect Trump. It was wide-ranging. We talked about some of the organizational issues in setting up the White House. We talked about foreign policy. We talked about domestic policy. And as I said last night, my number-one priority in the coming two months is to try to facilitate a transition that ensures our President-elect is successful. And I have been very encouraged by the, I think, interest in President-elect Trump's wanting to work with my team around many of the issues that this great country faces. And I believe that it is important for all of us, regardless of party and regardless of political preferences, to now come together, work together, to deal with the many challenges that we face. And in the meantime, Michelle has had a chance to greet the incoming First Lady. And we had an excellent conversation with her as well, and we want to make sure that they feel welcome as they prepare to make this transition. Most of all, I want to emphasize to you, Mr. President-elect, that we now are going to want to do everything we can to help you succeed -- because if you succeed, then the country succeeds. Please. PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much, President Obama. This was a meeting that was going to last for maybe 10 or 15 minutes, and we were just going to get to know each other. We had never met each other. I have great respect. The meeting lasted for almost an hour and a half. And it could have -- as far as I'm concerned, it could have gone on for a lot longer. We really -- we discussed a lot of different situations, some wonderful and some difficulties. I very much look forward to dealing with the President in the future, including counsel. He explained some of the difficulties, some of the high-flying assets and some of the really great things that have been achieved. So, Mr. President, it was a great honor being with you, and I look forward to being with you many, many more times in the future. END 12:40 P.M. EDT .

On your truck's line sheet, in the engine section, what is the 236GB part number under Oil Filter? If you don't have the line sheet, check the dimensions on a 236GB28B (236GB28, 236GB28A).

When I went to the voting booth, I did not have 17 Republican choices. THE PEOPLE of each party selected the 1 candidate they felt best represented what their party needed in order to win The people? Those "people" don't know me or my interests. It is impossible for them to choose for me. I have a dim view of the party system. It is a part of the past still clinging on, struggling to justify its continued existence. Our President and members of congress are.......employees of the American people. That's all they need to remember. I'd rather they not be affiliated with a "party", lest their priorities become......confused.

Have the people spoken? The "people" were only given two choices. The "people", including you and I, were not involved in the process of deciding that Clinton and Trump would be the two choices. Two choices really isn't.......much at all. And since we don't have a direct vote system like other countries, the people aren't actually choosing. They're sending their vote, allegedly, to the electoral college, but the EL doesn't have to heed it. Remember Gore versus GW Bush. There really wasn't a choice. Neither was qualified to be anything more than a state governor. If the system can't offer the people two qualified choices, there's a serious problem. I humbly suggest the people should be offered a minimum of six qualified choices, chosen by the people via preliminary direct vote nominations.

Related reading on International and Atkinson: http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/30957-those-magnificent-aussie-international-transtar-4670s/#comment-182918 http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/36017-the-legendary-acco-–-designed-and-built-by-australians/#comment-248847 http://www.bigmacktrucks.com/topic/31125-those-spanish-dodges-that-strolled-across-europe/#comment-182636

Prime Mover Magazine / November 8, 2016 Sales of new cab-chassis and prime movers during October showed an increase of 204 units over same month in 2015, according to new data compiled by the Truck Industry Council (TIC). The latest TIC results brings the year-to-date total to 22,241 trucks, 906 units or 4.2 per cent more than for the first 10 months of 2015. In the heavy-duty category, data showed a very slight improvement during October with 871 sales, nine units more than for the same month in 2015. The increase takes the year to date result to 7,817, which is still a negative 3.3 per cent or 264 heavy-duty trucks compared with this time last year. October sales were 35 more than for the previous month of September. The four big heavy-duty manufacturer groups also reflected the range of results of the overall market. Year-to-date figures showed that the Paccar Group (Kenworth and DAF) was down 105 units (minus 5.4 per cent on the first 10 months of 2015), while the Volvo Group (Volvo, Mack and UD Trucks) was up 23 trucks (1.1 per cent) and Daimler (which incorporates Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner and Fuso) sales were up 104 units (10.2 per cent). Meanwhile, the Penske Group (Western Star, MAN and Dennis Eagle) recorded total sales of 481 trucks across its three brands, down 208 units or 30.2 per cent from its 2015 statistics.

Owner/Driver / November 10, 2016 Rebuilt from the ground up, this '80s International has been put to work as a tipper and water cart I swear that there are some trucks that were deliberately engineered to be fallen out of. The best example I can think of is the International T-Line cab. If you’d poking around the ‘burbs in an ACCO and the boss then chucked you the keys to a T-Line, chances are that the first thing you did when you got to the other end of the journey was plummet to the ground scrabbling for grab handles and steps that weren’t there. I’ve also been told that the Mack Ultraliner was another serial offender when it came to driver’s plummeting from the cab and landing on their arses in front of an audience. I found that there are a couple of ways you can react after an undignified exit from the truck cab. You can spring back to your feet like an Olympic gymnast and pretend it didn’t happen. Or you can take a bow and ask for a round of applause. Or you can just limp away crying softly. And while I used to regularly fall out of a T-Line back in the day. I never had the opportunity to fall out of the T-Line’s flash highway sibling, the Atkinson. It’s amazing what you can find kicking around the back blocks of Oz sometimes. We have a habit of not letting our old bangers die. Where other countries hock their trade-ins off to developing markets, we tend to rebuild rather than replace. Even new trucks tend to have a second and third life within the same company. As a result there are some old jiggers still around working that were pretty flash back in the day. Hero renewed So I recently came across this old 1983 Atkinson 4870, it’s just been rebuilt from the ground up and put back to work. So I got in touch with the owners, father and son Brendan and Nick McKnight, and asked if it would be okay if I came around and fell out of their truck. Nick is a diesel mechanic by trade and he came by the old girl about 18 months ago. Like any old banger that rolled out the International plant in Dandenong in the 70’s and 80’s the cab was pretty well…er… ventilated. Rust has never been kind to these old boxy cabs. So Nick pulled the old girl to bits and started to rebuild this former highway hero. Starting with the 44,000lb Rockwells in the rear before completely rebuilding the 15-speed reduction ‘box and the jewel in the crown; a 14-litre BC3 Cummins. The cab was stripped back, repaired and painted. The interior was retrimmed, though Nick looks a little pained when he talks about that. Purist will probably be horrified that the grille has been redone in hammer tone. But according to Nick the bright work was, "Pretty knackered." A PTO and a tipper body were added and the 4870 was now ready to go to work as a water cart and occasional tipper. The old Atki was looking pretty schmick when I rolled up the driveway of the McKnight’s Central Victorian property. "The whole thing was a bit of a challenge," says Nick, "There was lots of rust in the cab." But, as a mechanic by trade the running gear wasn’t as much of an adventure. "We’ve got it running pretty sweet, we played with the cam timing a little to make her bark." I climb into the cab…carefully. That familiar old T-Line style dash greets me. It’s not hard to see the remnants of a highway heritage in here. A space in the overhead console where the CB used to be, the old school fan on the dash. The air con has been installed but hasn’t been connected yet. Behind the seats is a pretty sizeable bunk for the times, and this what really sets it apart from the T-Line Inter. Where the international had a padded shelf that you could crawl onto (and plenty did), the 4870 has a proper sleep cab with shelves and lights. Like so many old mechanical engines, the BC3 Cummins has a lot of character. Just the exhaust note at idle makes the truck sound like it’s raring to go, like it’s waiting to be unleashed. Memory lane I hit the maxi’s off and grab a gear, the rebuilt ‘box is pretty tight, and idle away. Clearly no one at International ever intended for anyone to use the clutch pedal once mobile. So I stir the ‘box without it. Funnily enough I’d just gotten my head around driving a 15 overdrive and now I had to reset back to a straight 15 reduction. But once we got hauling all of those 400 horses were a sound to behold. As we were empty the old steel Hendrickson arse-end kicked and bucked a bit but I was too busy listening to 14 litres of Cummins singing in the breeze. And even though there was no need for it, I just had to hit the jakes when it came time to slow down at a country intersection. For anyone who grew up around trucks that roar still echoes down the decades. Of course I then had to remember to flick it back off again. This ain’t no electronic engine. That familiar feeling of clanging down the down the road sitting a big old Cummins while hunched over the wheel starts to come back to me. The wheel is never still on this rough bush blacktop. We roll back down the driveway and into the shed. I swing out of the cab, miss a step and stumble. Luckily Nick is on the other side of the truck and doesn’t see. Awesome, this means I can stroll away nonchalantly as though nothing happened. It would have been a big truck in it’s day. An open road hauler with luxurious accommodation. And that big wrap around dash makes you feel as if you’re at the wheel of a major piece of machinery, it feels like a cockpit rather than just a place to sit. The International brand is on its way back to Oz but the 4870 was the last truck in the world to ever wear the Atkinson brand. We won’t be falling out of the like of them again, in fact these days we have further to fall. Watch the Atkinson in action here. .

Cummins Australia announces new X15 Power Torque Magazine / November 2016 Cummins devotees have a new choice for their preferred engine options in 2017 as Cummins Australia has announced its replacement for the ISXe5, Australia’s largest selling engine in the heavy duty truck segment, The Cummins X15 Euro 5 will be offered by the North American manufacturers that currently install the ISXe5 as an evolutionary product for Kenworth in the T-Series, the Argosy and Coronado from Freightliner and as the alternative engine to Detroit in Western Star products. “The X15 uses the same hardware and emissions reduction technology – SCR – as the existing ISXe5, and incorporates all the product improvements since the ISXe5 release in 2012, including power cylinder, cylinder head and turbocharger upgrades,” says Andrew Penca, managing director of Cummins South Pacific. “The X15 features ADEPT technology – a suite of advanced electronic features capable of delivering fuel economy gains through improved powertrain integration. “Another feature to be released with the X15 is Connected Diagnostics, a telematics solution that delivers instant and expert diagnosis of engine faults to the customer.” ADEPT – Advanced Dynamic Efficient Powertrain Technology – is for use with Eaton’s 18-speed automated UltraShift Plus transmission and has been under field test in Australia since early 2016. It utilises load, speed and grade-sensing technology to initiate adjustments to engine power, torque and transmission gear selection to take advantage of vehicle momentum for better fuel economy. Also included is the Cummins Intebrake which provides engine braking of 600hp at 2100rpm. The first ADEPT package includes two features: SmartCoast and SmartTorque. SmartCoast operates when the vehicle is on a moderate downhill grade by disengaging the front box of the transmission and returning the engine to idle to reduce drag, maintain momentum, and ultimately improve fuel economy. Once the engine commands the transmission to be put back in gear, the appropriate gear is engaged. SmartTorque uses torque management intelligence to help eliminate unnecessary downshifts and keep the engine operating in the most fuel efficient ‘sweet spot’. Torque is varied across all gears depending on torque requirement. For Australian operating conditions, the torque varies up to 1850 lb ft or 2050 lb ft depending on the horsepower and peak torque rating of the engine. Further features such as predictive cruise control will be added to ADEPT in the future. Cummins Connected Diagnostics will also be available with the release of the X15 in 2017. This telematics system automatically processes fault code data, sending instant notifications from Cummins to the vehicle fleet manager detailing the probable root cause and providing recommended actions. The expert advice, delivered by email, app or web portal, enables the fleet manager to make an informed decision about continuing truck operation and when to schedule a service visit for the most convenient time, thus minimising downtime. Additional connected solutions to be added in the near future include Over-the-Air (OTA) engine programming and customisation. This will allow an engine to be reprogrammed or updated with the latest calibration without having to take the truck to a service bay. “The X15 builds on the success of the ISXe5 of which more than 6000 have gone into service in Australia and New Zealand since 2013,” says Mike Fowler, director of on-highway business for Cummins South Pacific. “During this time our 15-litre Euro 5 product has established class-leading reliability, fuel economy and performance. “Our product development is no longer driven by emissions, but is instead inspired by customer needs and application requirements. The X15 is a sign of what is to come from Cummins in terms of significant efficiency gains for our customers.” The X15 will be offered with the same ratings as the ISXe5, from 450 to 600 hp with peak torque spanning 1650 to 2050 lb ft.

Trade Trucks AU / November 8, 2016 Engine manufacturer Cummins South Pacific has announced it will release its X15 Euro 5 next generation heavy-duty engine for the truck market in 2017. Replacing the 15-litre ISXe5, the new engine will be offered with the same horsepower ratings as the previous generation, from 450 to 600hp, and generate peak torque spanning 1,650 to 2,050 lb-ft. However, the X15 will add Advanced Dynamic Efficient Powertrain Technology (ADEPT) and Connected Diagnosis to the hardware and SCR technology found in the ISXe5. "The X15 uses the same hardware and emissions reduction technology – SCR – as the existing ISXe5," Cummins South Pacific managing director Andrew Penca says, "and incorporates all the product improvements since the ISXe5 release in 2012, including power cylinder, cylinder head and turbocharger upgrades." The addition of the ADEPT offering, which has been trialled in Australian conditions since early this year and works with Eaton’s 18-speed automated UltraShift Plus transmission, will improve fuel economy as it "utilises load, speed and grade-sensing technology to initiate adjustments to engine power, torque and transmission gear selection to take advantage of vehicle momentum," Cummins says. These improvements will be provided through two new features in the first ADEPT package: SmartCoast and SmartTorque. The former disengages the front box of the transmission, returning the engine to idle, while a truck is travelling a moderate downhill grade to reduce drag, maintain momentum and reduce fuel consumption. The gears are reengaged once the engine commands the transmission to be put back into action. SmartTorque on the other hand is about focusing on a fuel-efficient ‘sweet spot’. Using torque management intelligence to help remove unnecessary downshifts, Cummins says it keeps the engine running at its most efficient. The other major addition is the introduction of Cummins Connected Diagnosis, a telematics system that provides detailed information and expert advice to the operator should a fault occur. The automated process sends notifications from Cummins, via email, an app or the web portal, detailing probable root causes and the next steps an operator should take. Cummins says this offering will be bolstered "in the near future" with the addition of Over-the-Air (OTA) engine programming and customisation. The technology will allow engines to be reprogramed or updated without a visit to a service bay. Those waiting for predictive cruise control will not have to wait much longer either, as Cummins says it will join the ADEPT offering in the future. While it is slated for next year, industry sources believe the new X15 will make its first public appearance before then, arriving with an exciting new Kenworth model set for release in the next few months and scheduled to begin production at Kenworth’s Victorian Bayswater plant in February.