Jump to content
kscarbel2

"BMT Investors" Bulletin Board

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, kscarbel2 said:

Mark, will you be attending the BMT Investors winter retreat conference in Rio next January?

Absolutely, then I am headed to Jamaica for 2 weeks for my birthday. My new Gulfstream is supposed to be completed by then. I'll take you guys up in it if you like. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Modine Manufacturing* set a 52-week low today of $14.90.

* Modine Manufacturing Company provides engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway OEM vehicular applications primarily in the United States. The company operates through Americas, Europe, Asia, Commercial and Industrial Solutions, and Building HVAC segments. It offers powertrain cooling products, such as engine cooling assemblies, radiators, condensers, and charge air coolers; auxiliary cooling products, including power steering and transmission oil coolers; component assemblies; radiators for special applications; on-engine cooling products comprising exhaust gas recirculation, engine oil, fuel, and charge and intake air coolers; and chillers and cooling plates for battery thermal management. The company also provides heat-exchanger and microchannel Coils; unit, fluid, transformer oil, and brine coolers, as well as remote condensers; and coatings to protect against corrosion. In addition, it offers gas-fired, hydronic, electric, and oil-fired unit heaters; indoor and outdoor duct furnaces; infrared units; hydronic products, such as commercial fin-tube radiation, cabinet unit heaters, and convectors; roof-mounted direct- and indirect-fired makeup air units; commercial packaged rooftop ventilation units; unit ventilators; single packaged vertical units; precision air conditioning units for data center applications; air-handling units; chillers; ceiling cassettes; hybrid fan coils; and condensing units. It primarily serves automobile, truck, bus, and specialty vehicle OEMs; agricultural, industrial, and construction equipment OEMs; commercial and industrial equipment OEMs; heating, ventilation, and cooling OEMs; construction architects and contractors; and wholesalers of heating equipment. The company also exports its products. Modine Manufacturing Company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Garrett Motion, previously known as Honeywell and Garrett AiResearch, set a 52-week low today of $16.00.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fed chief Powell signals central bank is done with signaling

Ann Saphir, Reuters  /  September 27, 2018

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has a new message for financial markets: watch the data on jobs, wages and inflation for signals on monetary policy - not the U.S. central bank’s words or forecasts.

That’s a big change for the Fed, which for most of the past decade has done what it could to steer markets on its policy intentions as it nursed a fragile economy to recovery after the financial crisis.

As part of that so-called forward guidance, the Fed for years described its policy stance as “accommodative” to assure markets that it would not strangle economic growth.

But on Wednesday, the Fed removed that phrase from its policy statement.

Some investors read the change as a sign the central bank was nearing an end to the interest rate hike cycle it began in December 2015; JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli called that a “stretch.”

Noting the U.S. economy is having a “particularly bright moment,” with unemployment expected to remain low, inflation stable, and no recession in sight, Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday that the removal of the “accommodative” wording was not a policy signal at all.

“The question we are answering is, how do we provide the economy just the right amount of support - not too much, not too little - to sustain the recovery and achieve our statutory goals” of full employment and 2 percent inflation, Powell said.

“We don’t want to suggest either that we have this precise understanding of where accommodative stops or suggest that’s a really important point in our thinking. What we’re going to be doing ... is carefully monitoring incoming data.”

The Fed on Wednesday announced a widely expected rate increase, its third of the year, bringing its target range for its benchmark overnight lending rate to between 2 percent and 2.25 percent.

Fresh economic forecasts also released on Wednesday showed most policymakers expect the central bank to raise rates five more times before stopping some time in 2020.

But Powell, in effect, said not to put too much store in those forecasts because they could change with incoming data.

He noted that he is unsure when the rate increases he and his colleagues expect to deliver in the next year or two will start to bite into economic growth, or whether the economy’s underlying momentum has sped up enough to offset any such drag.

As the Fed raises rates, it will look for signals from the economy, like a slowdown in the labor market or economy, a spike in wages or inflation, or a sudden tightening of financial conditions, to cue an end to its tightening cycle, Powell said.

David Papell, an economics professor at the University of Houston, summed up the Powell-led Fed’s approach this way: “Let’s wait and see.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reuters  /  October 2, 2018

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday hailed a “remarkably positive outlook” for the U.S. economy that he feels is on the verge of a “historically rare” era of ultra-low unemployment and tame prices for the foreseeable future.

It is a view, he said, based on how a changed economy is operating today, with businesses and households immunized by strong central bank policy from the inflationary psychology that caused unemployment, inflation and interest rates to swing wildly in the 1960s and 1970s.

It is an outlook that includes an economic performance “unique in modern U.S. data,” with unemployment of below 4 percent expected for at least two more years and inflation remaining modest even as wages rise.

And it is an outlook he feels will even survive the Trump administration’s efforts to rewrite the global trading system, a policy shift Powell said may lead to one-time price hikes, but not to persistent changes in the annual rate of inflation going forward.

“This forecast is not too good to be true,” Powell told the National Associate for Business Economics, but instead “is testament to the fact that we remain in extraordinary times.”

“These developments amount to a better world for households and businesses which no longer experience or even fear the scourge of high and volatile inflation.”

Asked about the impact of tariffs on inflation, he replied that, so far, “we don’t see that in the data.”

Powell spoke as debate among economic analysts and investors has begun turning toward a central question: Will the current low rate of unemployment inevitably doom a near decade-long expansion by driving inflation to levels the Fed will have to suppress with faster and higher than expected rate increases?

That’s not the view contained in the Fed’s most recent round of forecasts, which sees a hot job market, steady economic growth, steady 2 percent inflation and only modest rate increases through 2021 - as if the United States had slipped into the sort of pleasant long-run equilibrium described in textbook economic models.

Seeds of Trouble

But several economists here argue that the seeds of trouble have already been planted, with companies using the recent tariff hikes on steel and other goods as an excuse to raise prices more generally, and to perhaps keep doing so.

At a time when Amazon announced a nationwide minimum wage increase that could put pressure on other retailers, the administration was trumpeting a trade pact with Mexico and Canada that will steer auto production to higher wage locales, and leaves in place new tariffs on steel, a key industrial input.

Boston Federal Reserve bank president Eric Rosengren said the current debate over globalization was not so much a “trade war” but “more of a supply chain war” that could take years to sort out as companies shift around production to higher-cost locales to escape tariffs on imports from China.

“Big importers will tell you it is not that easy to change...It becomes a real risk if all of a sudden you are not sure what your price is going to be,” he said on Monday.

Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citigroup and former chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said the spark could be lit early next year.

The costs of adjusting to tariffs and to trade uncertainty “gives firms cover to say, ‘I’m going to raise my prices,’” she told the NABE annual conference. “I’m timing it for the beginning of the year,” Mann said, when a windfall from this year’s tax cuts fade.

Powell, in his remarks, said the Fed is not blind to the possible “revenge” of prices rising as they have before during times of sustained low unemployment. The central bank is guarding against that with its current, gradual interest rate increases, and will respond “with authority” if an inflationary mindset threatens to take hold.

But he noted that many current and past Fed officials, himself among them, had warned in the years following the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis that falling unemployment and the Fed’s printing of trillions of dollars of new money would unhinge inflation at any moment.

It never happened, and he said there is no reason now to expect it will.

“I am glad to be able to stand here and say that the economy is strong, unemployment is near 50-year lows, and inflation is roughly at our 2 percent objective,” Powell said. “The baseline outlook for forecasters inside and outside the Fed is for more of the same.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Volvo fuel injection system supplier Delphi set a new 52-week low yesterday of $29.53.

Today, the CEO resigned after just 10 months on the job.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reuters  /  October 5, 2018

Auto supplier Delphi Technologies Plc said on Friday Chief Executive Officer Liam Butterworth was stepping down, more than ten months after taking the post.

The company, which also cut its full-year revenue forecast, said director Hari Nair would be the interim chief and its board has commenced a comprehensive search to identify a permanent CEO.

Delphi said Butterworth was stepping down "to pursue other interests." 

Butterworth had taken the top job in December after Delphi was spun off from Delphi Automotive, now known as Aptiv Plc. Nair has been a director at Delphi since the spin-off.

Nair has previously worked with Tenneco Inc. and General Motors.

The company said it expects full-year revenue growth to be about flat, compared with its previous forecast of up 2 percent to 4 percent.

Delphi, citing challenging industry dynamics, also cut its full-year adjusted operating margin forecast range to 11.3 percent to 11.5 percent, from 12.1 percent to 12.3 percent.

Up to Thursday's close, Delphi's shares had fallen about 41 percent since their listing on the New York Stock Exchange in late November. 

Delphi ranks No. 58 on the Automotive News list of the top 100 global suppliers with worldwide sales to automakers of $3.9 billion in 2017.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Dow fell 831 points yesterday. It wasn't a market crash, however it was a very, vary bad day.

After the President commented on it, things went from bad to worse (I don't disagree with him, just laying out yesterday's timeline of events).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“The Fed is making a mistake," said Trump. "They’re so tight. I think Fed has gone crazy. It’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for, for a long time. But I really disagree with what the Fed is doing, OK?”

Later, Trump said “The Fed is going loco and there is no reason for them to do it.”

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Dow is down 550 points this morning.

There is a distinct possibility that this is the prelude to a global market crash alike 2008.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Paccar (PCAR) today set a new 52-week low of $54.87, despite a 35 percent increase in net income. Volume was two and a half times normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ford (F) set a new 52-week low today of $8.17, closing up a penny at $8.18.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

$6.00 could happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn't impressed, so when F popped up in the high $8 range I figured it was a good time to get out. Sold most of my holdings, but kept enough shares to qualify for X-Plan pricing in case the Transit Connect diesel ever makes it to the american market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Maxidyne said:

I wasn't impressed, so when F popped up in the high $8 range I figured it was a good time to get out. Sold most of my holdings, but kept enough shares to qualify for X-Plan pricing in case the Transit Connect diesel ever makes it to the american market.

I don't think that's gonna be the game changer. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With or without a diesel option, Transit Connect sales in the U.S. are virtually a rounding error on Ford's balance sheets. But I'll be tempted to buy one if they ever get here, and hanging on to 100 shares of Ford stock gets me X plan pricing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shares of Oshkosh (OSK) closed up 21.4 percent today.

The company earned $2.05 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.45 per share.

Sales grew year-over-year 13 percent to $7.7 billion.

Full-year earnings came in at $6.29 per diluted share, an increase of 67 percent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Volvo fuel injection system supplier Delphi crashed today, setting a new 52-week low yesterday of $18.67. Look for it to go down further.

The CEO resigned last month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of people in the U.S. miss this... Simply by having populations of over a billion each, China and India once they fully industrialize will have the world's largest economies.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why Paccar Inc. Stock Slid 16.1% in October Despite Solid Quarterly Numbers

The Motley Fool  /  November 12, 2018

The truck manufacturer is benefiting from strong trucking markets, so what's worrying investors?

What happened

Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR) was on its way to a strong year when October happened. Shares of Paccar [and Navistar] got caught in the broader industrials sell-off, and even better-than-expected quarterly earnings backed by exceptionally strong trucking markets couldn't help investors shrug off their pessimism. Paccar stock finally ended October down 16.1%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, and has barely budged so far this month.

So what

Orders for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks in North America are sitting at record highs, with October likely to be the eighth straight month of industry orders of more than 40,000 units, according to research firm FTR. As a leading truck manufacturer in the U.S., Paccar is making the most of the good times, as evidenced by its third-quarter numbers that were released on Oct. 23.

In Q3, Paccar's production hit record highs, revenue climbed 14% to $5.76 billion, and net income soared 35% to $545.3 million. While the company didn't give out its backlog value, CEO Ron Armstrong revealed that Class 8 orders for Paccar's flagship truck brands, Kenworth and Peterbilt, more than doubled during the first nine months of the year compared with the year-ago period. Meanwhile, in Europe, Paccar's DAF brand achieved record market share of 16.6% in the above-16-tonne market, up from 15.1% same quarter last year.

Given those numbers, it appears fears of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and concerns about the trucking cycle peaking triggered a sell-off in Paccar shares in October.

Now what

While we can't say much about how long the trade war will last or how badly it'll affect Paccar, the trucking markets remain on a strong footing. Barely days ago, FTR raised its forecast for 2019 North American industry Class 8 truck shipments, as it foresees robust freight growth.

Paccar, for its part, is chalking out plans to increase capital expenditures in 2019 by nearly 20% of the projected 2018 midpoint of $450 billion on new truck models, diesel and powertrain technologies, and capacity expansion for both trucks and parts. So if not for the broader market sell-off, October would've likely been a smoother ride for Paccar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Welcome to BMT!

...The world's best antique, classic & modern Mack Truck support forum! Founded in 2000, BigMackTrucks.com is the place to go for everything related to Mack Trucks!

BMT!

BigMackTrucks.com is owned and operated by Watt's Truck Center, New Alexandria, PA. This forum and it's contents are not affiliated with Mack Trucks, Inc. or Volvo Trucks North America.

×